World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Sep 8, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti
Argentina1 - 0Ecuador
The Match
Match Report
Lionel Messi scores a stunning 78th-minute free kick to lead Argentina to a 1-0 victory over Ecuador in their opening World Cup qualifier.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Argentina and Ecuador, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Predicted Lineups
Sports Mole looks at how Argentina could line up for Thursday's World Cup qualifier against Ecuador in Buenos Aires.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Indonesia 0-2 Argentina
Monday, June 19 at 1.30pm in International Friendlies
Monday, June 19 at 1.30pm in International Friendlies
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Argentina | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Poland | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Mexico | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | -2 | 3 |
Last Game: Ecuador 3-1 Costa Rica
Wednesday, June 21 at 1.15am in International Friendlies
Wednesday, June 21 at 1.15am in International Friendlies
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Netherlands | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Qatar | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 69.71%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 10.91%.
The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.83%) and 3-0 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.07%), while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (4.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Argentina would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Argentina | Draw | Ecuador |
69.71% ( -0.11) | 19.38% ( 0.04) | 10.91% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 41.75% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
