Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 41.2%. A win for Iraq had a probability of 33.77% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.82%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Iraq win was 1-0 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Iran would win this match.
