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World Cup
Japan national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Second Round
Mar 21, 2024 at 10.23am UK
National Olympic Stadium
North Korea national football team

Japan
1 - 0
North Korea

Tanaka (2')
Ito (60')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Kuk-Chol (20'), Ri (73'), Kang II (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between Japan and North Korea, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Japan

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Iran 2-1 Japan
Saturday, February 3 at 11.30am in Asian Cup

North Korea

All competitions
Last Game: Myanmar 1-6 North Korea
Tuesday, November 21 at 9.30am in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

We said: Japan 3-0 North Korea

 North Korea will be motivated to upset the odds here, aware of how all but a few people will expect this group to be a foregone conclusion for Japan. We expect it to be just that for this game, too, with Japan cruising to the three points and another clean sheet. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 80.23%. A draw had a probability of 12.9% and a win for North Korea had a probability of 6.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.12%) and 1-0 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.12%), while for a North Korea win it was 0-1 (2.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.

Result
JapanDrawNorth Korea
80.23% (0.070999999999998 0.07) 12.94% (-0.041 -0.04) 6.82% (-0.035 -0.04)
Both teams to score 46.53% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.54% (0.070000000000007 0.07)33.46% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.75% (0.082999999999998 0.08)55.24% (-0.088000000000001 -0.09)
Japan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
93.53% (0.027000000000001 0.03)6.46% (-0.032 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
75.83% (0.081000000000003 0.08)24.17% (-0.086000000000002 -0.09)
North Korea Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
49.74% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)50.25% (0.030999999999999 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.16% (-0.025 -0.03)84.83% (0.020999999999987 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Japan 80.23%
    North Korea 6.82%
    Draw 12.94%
JapanDrawNorth Korea
2-0 @ 12.18% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-0 @ 11.12% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.9% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-1 @ 8.38% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-1 @ 7.65% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-0 @ 7.62% (0.021 0.02)
4-1 @ 5.24% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
5-0 @ 4.17% (0.018 0.02)
5-1 @ 2.87% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.63% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
6-0 @ 1.9% (0.011 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.8% (0.00099999999999989 0)
6-1 @ 1.31% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
5-2 @ 0.99% (0.003 0)
Other @ 3.45%
Total : 80.23%
1-1 @ 6.12% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 3.25% (-0.013 -0.01)
2-2 @ 2.89% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 0.68%
Total : 12.94%
0-1 @ 2.24% (-0.011 -0.01)
1-2 @ 2.11% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Other @ 2.48%
Total : 6.82%

How you voted: Japan vs North Korea

Japan
89.3%
Draw
7.1%
North Korea
3.6%
28
rhs 2.0
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