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Asian Cup
Iran national football team
Asian Cup | Quarter-Finals
Feb 3, 2024 at 11.30am UK
Education City Stadium
Japan national football team

Iran
2 - 1
Japan

Mohebi (55'), Jahanbakhsh (90+6' pen.)
FT(HT: 0-1)
Morita (28')
Itakura (24'), Ueda (48')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Asian Cup clash between Iran and Japan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Iran

All competitions
Asian Cup
Last Game: Iran 1-1 Syria (5-3 pen.)
Wednesday, January 31 at 4pm in Asian Cup

Japan

All competitions
Asian Cup
Last Game: Bahrain 1-3 Japan
Wednesday, January 31 at 11.30am in Asian Cup

We said: Iran 1-3 Japan

 Given the injury concerns on the back end for Iran, the Samurai Blue could find their share of openings in the attacking third, while Iran might have difficulty scoring without the services of Taremi. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 45.97%. A win for Japan had a probability of 27.56% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Japan win was 0-1 (8.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Iran would win this match.

Result
IranDrawJapan
45.97% (-1.799 -1.8) 26.47% (0.907 0.91) 27.56% (0.89 0.89)
Both teams to score 49.55% (-2.05 -2.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.28% (-2.991 -2.99)54.72% (2.99 2.99)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.96% (-2.537 -2.54)76.04% (2.536 2.54)
Iran Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.25% (-2.093 -2.09)23.75% (2.091 2.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.1% (-3.101 -3.1)57.89% (3.102 3.1)
Japan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.98% (-0.881 -0.88)35.01% (0.88 0.88)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.24% (-0.935 -0.93)71.76% (0.935 0.94)
Score Analysis
    Iran 45.97%
    Japan 27.56%
    Draw 26.46%
IranDrawJapan
1-0 @ 11.95% (0.65 0.65)
2-1 @ 9.02% (-0.281 -0.28)
2-0 @ 8.59% (-0.058 -0.06)
3-1 @ 4.32% (-0.42 -0.42)
3-0 @ 4.12% (-0.293 -0.29)
3-2 @ 2.27% (-0.281 -0.28)
4-1 @ 1.55% (-0.26 -0.26)
4-0 @ 1.48% (-0.208 -0.21)
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 45.97%
1-1 @ 12.54% (0.39 0.39)
0-0 @ 8.32% (0.923 0.92)
2-2 @ 4.73% (-0.265 -0.27)
Other @ 0.87%
Total : 26.46%
0-1 @ 8.73% (0.781 0.78)
1-2 @ 6.58% (0.049 0.05)
0-2 @ 4.58% (0.309 0.31)
1-3 @ 2.3% (-0.038 -0.04)
2-3 @ 1.66% (-0.136 -0.14)
0-3 @ 1.6% (0.071 0.07)
Other @ 2.11%
Total : 27.56%

How you voted: Winner Match 44 vs Winner Match 43

Winner Match 44
39.0%
Draw
15.9%
Winner Match 43
45.1%
82
rhs 2.0
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