World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Oct 17, 2023 at 10pm UK

Estadio Monumental de Maturin

Venezuela
3 - 0
Chile

Soteldo (45+1'), Rondon (72'), Machis (79')
Graterol (73')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Nunez (59'), Suazo (90+2')
Nunez (59')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Venezuela and Chile, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Venezuela

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Brazil 1-1 Venezuela
Friday, October 13 at 1.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	3	5	9
2	Brazil	3	5	7
3	Ecuador	3	1	6
4	Colombia	3	1	5
5	Uruguay	3	1	4
6	Chile	3	0	4
7	Venezuela	3	0	4
8	Paraguay	3	-2	1
9	Peru	3	-3	1
10	Bolivia	3	-8	0

Chile

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Chile 2-0 Peru
Friday, October 13 at 1am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	3	5	9
2	Brazil	3	5	7
3	Ecuador	3	1	6
4	Colombia	3	1	5
5	Uruguay	3	1	4
6	Chile	3	0	4
7	Venezuela	3	0	4
8	Paraguay	3	-2	1
9	Peru	3	-3	1
10	Bolivia	3	-8	0

Venezuela will have taken significant confidence from their draw against Brazil, and we can envisage them recording a fourth successive 1-0 win on home soil on Tuesday. Chile are still flattering to deceive under Berizza's management, with their ageing side feeling somewhat stale, and they have it all to do to prove they are capable of avoiding missing out on qualifying for the World Cup for the third successive campaign. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Venezuela win with a probability of 41.07%. A win for Chile had a probability of 29.75% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Venezuela win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.19%) and 2-1 (7.94%). The likeliest Chile win was 0-1 (11.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Venezuela would win this match.

Result
Venezuela	Draw	Chile
41.07% ( 2)	29.17% ( 0.13)	29.75% ( -2.14)

Both teams to score 43.29% (

-1.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.78% (

-0.95)

63.22% (

0.94)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.37% (

-0.69)

82.62% (

0.68)

Venezuela Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.7% (

0.7)

30.29% (

-0.71)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.53% (

0.83)

66.47% (

-0.84)

Chile Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.11% (

-2.14)

37.89% (

2.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.33% (

-2.14)

74.66% (

2.14)

Score Analysis

Venezuela 41.06%

Chile 29.75%

Draw 29.16%

Venezuela	Draw	Chile
1-0 @ 13.7% ( 0.72) 2-0 @ 8.19% ( 0.58) 2-1 @ 7.94% ( 0.13) 3-0 @ 3.26% ( 0.29) 3-1 @ 3.16% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 0.94% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.36% Total : 41.06%	1-1 @ 13.3% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 11.47% ( 0.39) 2-2 @ 3.85% ( -0.17) Other @ 0.53% Total : 29.16%	0-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.27) 1-2 @ 6.46% ( -0.41) 0-2 @ 5.41% ( -0.46) 1-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.27) 0-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.26) 2-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.13) Other @ 1.67% Total : 29.75%