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World Cup
Venezuela national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Oct 17, 2023 at 10pm UK
Estadio Monumental de Maturin
Chile national football team

Venezuela
3 - 0
Chile

Soteldo (45+1'), Rondon (72'), Machis (79')
Graterol (73')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Nunez (59'), Suazo (90+2')
Nunez (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Venezuela and Chile, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Venezuela

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Brazil 1-1 Venezuela
Friday, October 13 at 1.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Chile

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Chile 2-0 Peru
Friday, October 13 at 1am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

We said: Venezuela 1-0 Chile

 Venezuela will have taken significant confidence from their draw against Brazil, and we can envisage them recording a fourth successive 1-0 win on home soil on Tuesday. Chile are still flattering to deceive under Berizza's management, with their ageing side feeling somewhat stale, and they have it all to do to prove they are capable of avoiding missing out on qualifying for the World Cup for the third successive campaign. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Venezuela win with a probability of 41.07%. A win for Chile had a probability of 29.75% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Venezuela win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.19%) and 2-1 (7.94%). The likeliest Chile win was 0-1 (11.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Venezuela would win this match.

Result
VenezuelaDrawChile
41.07% (2.002 2) 29.17% (0.134 0.13) 29.75% (-2.141 -2.14)
Both teams to score 43.29% (-1.038 -1.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
36.78% (-0.946 -0.95)63.22% (0.941 0.94)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
17.37% (-0.689 -0.69)82.62% (0.68300000000001 0.68)
Venezuela Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.7% (0.703 0.7)30.29% (-0.709 -0.71)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.53% (0.832 0.83)66.47% (-0.837 -0.84)
Chile Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.11% (-2.143 -2.14)37.89% (2.138 2.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.33% (-2.142 -2.14)74.66% (2.137 2.14)
Score Analysis
    Venezuela 41.06%
    Chile 29.75%
    Draw 29.16%
VenezuelaDrawChile
1-0 @ 13.7% (0.72 0.72)
2-0 @ 8.19% (0.584 0.58)
2-1 @ 7.94% (0.126 0.13)
3-0 @ 3.26% (0.291 0.29)
3-1 @ 3.16% (0.11 0.11)
3-2 @ 1.53% (-0.036 -0.04)
4-0 @ 0.97% (0.104 0.1)
4-1 @ 0.94% (0.05 0.05)
Other @ 1.36%
Total : 41.06%
1-1 @ 13.3% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05)
0-0 @ 11.47% (0.39 0.39)
2-2 @ 3.85% (-0.167 -0.17)
Other @ 0.53%
Total : 29.16%
0-1 @ 11.13% (-0.27 -0.27)
1-2 @ 6.46% (-0.412 -0.41)
0-2 @ 5.41% (-0.458 -0.46)
1-3 @ 2.09% (-0.266 -0.27)
0-3 @ 1.75% (-0.262 -0.26)
2-3 @ 1.25% (-0.132 -0.13)
Other @ 1.67%
Total : 29.75%

How you voted: Venezuela vs Chile

Venezuela
49.2%
Draw
27.7%
Chile
23.1%
65
Head to Head
Oct 15, 2021 1am
Group Stage
Chile
3-0
Venezuela
> Preview
Nov 17, 2020 9pm
Group Stage
Venezuela
2-1
Chile
Mago (9'), Rondon (81')
Mago (88')
Vidal (15')
Maripan (8'), Isla (46')
> Preview
Mar 28, 2017 11pm
Group Stage
Chile
3-1
Venezuela
Sanchez (5'), Paredes (7', 22')
Rondon (63')
rhs 2.0
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