World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Oct 13, 2023 at 1am UK

Estadio Nacional Julio Martinez Pradanos

Chile
2 - 0
Peru

Valdes (74'), Nunez (90+1')
Brereton Diaz (49'), Pulgar (76')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Guerrero (32'), Lopez (46')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Chile and Peru, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chile

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Chile 0-0 Colombia
Wednesday, September 13 at 1.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	2	5	6
2	Argentina	2	4	6
3	Colombia	2	1	4
4	Uruguay	2	1	3
5	Ecuador	2	0	3
6	Venezuela	2	0	3
7	Paraguay	2	-1	1
8	Peru	2	-1	1
9	Chile	2	-2	1
10	Bolivia	2	-7	0

Peru

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Peru 0-1 Brazil
Wednesday, September 13 at 3am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	2	5	6
2	Argentina	2	4	6
3	Colombia	2	1	4
4	Uruguay	2	1	3
5	Ecuador	2	0	3
6	Venezuela	2	0	3
7	Paraguay	2	-1	1
8	Peru	2	-1	1
9	Chile	2	-2	1
10	Bolivia	2	-7	0

Both sides certainly have plenty of experience on this stage throughout their ranks and will be desperate for a first win of qualifying, but we see La Roja having slightly more quality running through their squad and fancy them to take all three points on home soil given the superior firepower. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chile win with a probability of 65.34%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Peru had a probability of 13.04%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chile win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.63%) and 2-1 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.02%), while for a Peru win it was 0-1 (5.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chile would win this match.

Result
Chile	Draw	Peru
65.34% ( -0.85)	21.62% ( 0.29)	13.04% ( 0.56)

Both teams to score 41.56% (

0.7)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.36% (

0.08)

53.64% (

-0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.86% (

0.07)

75.13% (

-0.06)

Chile Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.26% (

-0.25)

15.73% (

0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.17% (

-0.47)

44.83% (

0.47)

Peru Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

49.32% (

0.98)

50.67% (

-0.98)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.88% (

0.66)

85.12% (

-0.65)

Score Analysis

Chile 65.33%

Peru 13.04%

Draw 21.62%

Chile	Draw	Peru
1-0 @ 14.74% ( -0.17) 2-0 @ 13.63% ( -0.28) 2-1 @ 9.27% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 8.41% ( -0.25) 3-1 @ 5.71% ( -0) 4-0 @ 3.89% ( -0.15) 4-1 @ 2.64% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.94% ( 0.05) 5-0 @ 1.44% ( -0.07) 5-1 @ 0.98% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.69% Total : 65.33%	1-1 @ 10.02% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 7.97% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 3.15% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.48% Total : 21.62%	0-1 @ 5.42% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 3.41% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 1.84% ( 0.1) Other @ 2.37% Total : 13.04%