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Preview: Qatar Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Jessica Pegula - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Qatar Open quarter-final between Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Jessica Pegula, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

In-form Ekaterina Alexandrova seeks an eighth straight victory on the WTA Tour when she takes on 2023 Qatar Open finalist Jessica Pegula in Thursday's quarter-final.

The recent champion in Linz already stunned world No. 1 and 2020 Doha champion Aryna Sabalenka in round two and seeks another top-10 victory at the American player's expense.


Match preview

Ekaterina Alexandrova reacts at the Qatar Open on February 11, 2025© Imago

Alexandrova is arguably the most in-form player on the women's tour heading into Thursday's quarter-final tussle with Pegula.  

Having claimed the maiden WTA 500 title of her career in Linz, the Russian player has followed up that success in Austria with two straight-set wins over Emma Raducanu and Elise Mertens, either side of a stunning comeback triumph over top seed Sabalenka.

Those three triumphs have seen the 30-year-old five-time WTA champion notch seven wins on the trot before the last-eight match in Doha, improving to 8-3 in 2025.

The recent success over Mertens has taken Alexandrova into a first quarter-final at the Qatar Open, and the former world No. 15 seeks a ninth win this season at the expense of her American opponent to advance to a first last-four match in Doha.

With last year's third-round exit to Iga Swiatek the only loss suffered in this competition in the previous six matches at the WTA 1000 event, the Russian player aims to improve that record against Pegula.

Jessica Pegula in action at the Wuhan Open on October 8, 2024© Imago

That outcome will be easier said than done for the five-time tour winner, who faces a 2023 runner-up and 2021 semi-finalist keen to make another run to the last four on her return to the event after missing out in 2024.

Like Alexandrova, Swiatek was the last woman to beat Pegula in Doha, with the former world No. 3's only loss in her last six at the Qatar Open against the Polish superstar.

The American No. 2 player enters Thursday's last-eight match-up bidding to improve her 10-3 career win-loss record at the event and 7-2 record this season, having taken out Australian Open quarter-finalist and 17-time WTA champion Elina Svitolina and 10th seed Daria Kasatkina to set up a third tour-level meeting with her Russian opponent.

Unlike Alexandrova, the six-time WTA champion has winning experience at 1000 events, all three on hard courts; the 2024 US Open runner-up, who made the Adelaide final at the turn of the year, hopes that her superior experience will help her in the battle of two 30-year-olds.

While success will take Pegula into a third career semi-final in Doha, beating the in-form Alexandrova will require high-level play from the United States player.


Tournament so far

Ekaterina Alexandrova:

First round: vs. Emma Raducanu 6-3 7-5
Second round: vs. Aryna Sabalenka 3-6 6-3 7-6
Third round: vs. Elise Mertens 6-4 6-2

Jessica Pegula:

First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Elina Svitolina 6-3 7-6
Third round: vs. Daria Kasatkina 6-3 7-5


Head To Head

Miami (2024) - Quarter-final: Alexandrova 3-6 6-4 6-4

Rome (2021) - Round of 16: Pegula 6-2 6-4

While Pegula secured a win over Alexandrova in the pair's first WTA Tour match-up, the Russian won their last meeting, notably on the hard courts of Miami in 2024.

There was little to separate both women in last season's encounter, which went to three sets and finished just two minutes shy of two hours.

Having snapped a four-match losing run against top-10 players with success against Sabalenka, Alexandrova aims for consecutive wins over such opponents for the first time since last year's WTA 1000 event in Miami, where she beat Swiatek and Pegula en route to the semis.


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We say: Alexandrova to win in three sets

Thursday's match-up is hard to call, given Pegula's historical performance in Doha and Alexandrova's seven-match winning run.

Although the quarter-final could go either way, we back the Russian player to make the most of her momentum to edge the six-time WTA champion for a semi-final berth.

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Written by
Anthony Brown

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