The new Champions League format has now reached its halfway stage, with the 36-team League Phase beginning to take firm shape.
It is not a shape many would have expected at this point too, with Arne Slot's Liverpool leading the way in the Champions League table as the only remaining perfect team, and a number of previously-unfancied clubs following them on 10 points from a possible 12 available.
Sporting Lisbon's statement-making 4-1 win over Manchester City lifted the Portuguese outfit up to second place prior to Ruben Amorim's departure to Manchester United, while Ligue 1 duo Monaco and Brest - the latter of whom are tasting European competition for the very first time this season - sit third and fourth respectively.
Some more recognisable European names follow, with Inter Milan, Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund also currently in a top eight that is rounded out by another surprise package in Aston Villa, who are competing in Europe's top club competition for the first time in 41 years.
However, some footballing giants are struggling to date, with Bayern Munich and defending champions Real Madrid sitting 17th and 18th respectively, Atletico Madrid down in 23rd and Paris Saint-Germain currently on course to miss out on the knockout rounds altogether in 25th.
Here, Sports Mole takes a look at how many points should be enough to see teams progress through the League Phase of the 2024-25 Champions League.
© Reuters
How many points are required to reach Champions League knockouts?
The League Phase of the 2024-25 Champions League started in September and will run through to January, meaning that there is a slight extension on the December end date of the previous group-stage format.
All 36 clubs will play eight times in the League Phase and the top eight teams will automatically advance to the last 16, while teams finishing between ninth and 24th must compete in a two-legged playoff round to join them. Any side that finishes 25th or lower will be eliminated with no access to the Europa League.
According to studies from Football Meets Data, who have carried out over 10,000 simulations, between 15 and 16 points will most likely be enough to see teams secure a top-eight finish and progress to the knockout rounds of the Champions League in its new format.
This would therefore mean that clubs would be required to win at least five of their eight games in the League Phase, or another combination of victories and draws to reach the 15 to 16-point marker.
Liverpool are already within touching distance of that tally with four games still to play, despite Opta predicting pre-tournament that Slot's men would collect 13 points in total during the League Phase, and giving them a 31.7% chance of finishing in the top eight to progress automatically to the last 16.
Meanwhile, the report from Football Meets Data finds that teams will likely need to pick up nine points from eight games if they wish to finish in the top 24 and secure at least a place in the playoff round - a tally which the top eight sides have all already reached.
> Click here to view every 2024-25 Champions League fixture
Oliver Thomas
