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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 41.13%. A win for Borussia Monchengladbach had a probability of 33.83% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.81%) and 0-2 (6.61%). The likeliest Borussia Monchengladbach win was 1-0 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
Result | ||
Borussia Monchengladbach | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
33.83% ( -0.12) | 25.04% ( -0.05) | 41.13% ( 0.16) |
Both teams to score 57.13% ( 0.13) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.73% ( 0.18) | 46.26% ( -0.18) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.44% ( 0.17) | 68.55% ( -0.17) |
Borussia Monchengladbach Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.64% ( 0.01) | 26.36% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.5% ( 0.02) | 61.5% ( -0.02) |
Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.58% ( 0.16) | 22.42% ( -0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.06% ( 0.24) | 55.94% ( -0.24) |
Score Analysis |
Borussia Monchengladbach | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
1-0 @ 7.88% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 7.86% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 3.49% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.61% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.34% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.16% ( -0) Other @ 3.24% Total : 33.83% | 1-1 @ 11.78% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.91% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.87% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.04% | 0-1 @ 8.84% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 8.81% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 6.61% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 4.39% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 3.29% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.93% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.64% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.23% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.09% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.3% Total : 41.13% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 14 |
2 | RB Leipzig | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 13 |
4 | Freiburg | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 12 |
5 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 11 |
6 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
7 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 10 |
8 | Stuttgart | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 9 |
9 | Heidenheim | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
10 | Mainz 05Mainz | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 8 |
11 | Werder Bremen | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 7 |
13 | Augsburg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 7 |
14 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
15 | St Pauli | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
16 | Hoffenheim | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 4 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 2 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 1 |
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