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Bundesliga | Gameweek 30
Apr 21, 2024 at 6.30pm UK
Schwarzwald-Stadion
Mainz logo

Freiburg
1 - 1
Mainz

Gregoritsch (6')
Kubler (31'), Hofler (42'), Holer (70')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Burkardt (40')
Jae-sung (35'), Krauss (62'), Caci (71'), van den Berg (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Freiburg and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Darmstadt 0-1 Freiburg
Sunday, April 14 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Mainz 4-1 Hoffenheim
Saturday, April 13 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Freiburg 2-1 Mainz 05

Despite the difference in league positions, this has all the potential to be a thoroughly-competitive fixture that could go either way. Mainz will back themselves to earn at least a draw, yet we fancy Freiburg to edge this contest by the odd goal in three. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 52.01%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 25.87% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.55%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (6.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.

Result
FreiburgDrawMainz 05
52.01% (1.812 1.81) 22.12% (0.054000000000002 0.05) 25.87% (-1.872 -1.87)
Both teams to score 62.44% (-1.994 -1.99)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.9% (-1.868 -1.87)37.1% (1.863 1.86)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.7% (-2.047 -2.05)59.29% (2.04 2.04)
Freiburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.54% (-0.070999999999998 -0.07)14.46% (0.065000000000001 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.57% (-0.133 -0.13)42.43% (0.127 0.13)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73% (-2.273 -2.27)27% (2.267 2.27)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.65% (-3.075 -3.08)62.35% (3.068 3.07)
Score Analysis
    Freiburg 52.01%
    Mainz 05 25.87%
    Draw 22.12%
FreiburgDrawMainz 05
2-1 @ 9.56% (0.215 0.22)
1-0 @ 7.55% (0.65 0.65)
2-0 @ 7.3% (0.612 0.61)
3-1 @ 6.16% (0.124 0.12)
3-0 @ 4.71% (0.385 0.39)
3-2 @ 4.03% (-0.184 -0.18)
4-1 @ 2.98% (0.053 0.05)
4-0 @ 2.27% (0.181 0.18)
4-2 @ 1.95% (-0.093 -0.09)
5-1 @ 1.15% (0.018 0.02)
Other @ 4.35%
Total : 52.01%
1-1 @ 9.89% (0.245 0.24)
2-2 @ 6.26% (-0.269 -0.27)
0-0 @ 3.9% (0.344 0.34)
3-3 @ 1.76% (-0.204 -0.2)
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 22.12%
1-2 @ 6.47% (-0.263 -0.26)
0-1 @ 5.11% (0.139 0.14)
0-2 @ 3.35% (-0.128 -0.13)
1-3 @ 2.83% (-0.312 -0.31)
2-3 @ 2.73% (-0.309 -0.31)
0-3 @ 1.46% (-0.158 -0.16)
1-4 @ 0.93% (-0.171 -0.17)
Other @ 3%
Total : 25.87%

How you voted: Freiburg vs Mainz

Freiburg
69.1%
Draw
18.2%
Mainz 05
12.7%
55
Head to Head
Dec 3, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 13
Mainz
0-1
Freiburg

Barreiro (29')
Gregoritsch (69')
Sallai (87')
Mar 19, 2023 6.30pm
Gameweek 25
Mainz
1-1
Freiburg
Onisiwo (90+6')
Doan (55')
Oct 1, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 8
Freiburg
2-1
Mainz
Gregoritsch (3'), Kyereh (37')
Caricol (52')
Feb 12, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 22
Freiburg
1-1
Mainz
Petersen (69')
Hack (31')
Stach (7'), Kohr (76')
Sep 18, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 5
Mainz
0-0
Freiburg
Hack (45'), Zentner (90+3')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CBayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen34286089246590
2Stuttgart34234778393973
3Bayern MunichBayern34233894454972
4RB Leipzig34198777393865
5Borussia DortmundDortmund34189768432563
6Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt34111495150147
7Hoffenheim34137146666046
8Heidenheim341012125055-542
9Werder Bremen34119144854-642
10Freiburg34119144558-1342
11Augsburg34109155060-1039
12Wolfsburg34107174156-1537
13Mainz 05Mainz34714133951-1235
14Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach34713145667-1134
15Union BerlinUnion Berlin3496193358-2533
16VfL BochumVfL Bochum34712154274-3233
RFC Koln34512172860-3227
RSV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt3438233086-5617


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