MX23RW : Monday, May 20 19:06:35| >> :300:86500:86500:
Augsburg logo
Leverkusen logo
Bayern logo
Dortmund logo
Borussia Monchengladbach logo
Eintracht Frankfurt logo
Koln logo
Freiburg logo
Heidenheim
Hoffenheim logo
Mainz logo
Leipzig logo
SV Darmstadt
Stuttgart
Union Berlin logo
VfL Bochum
Werder Bremen logo
Wolfsburg
Stuttgart
Bundesliga | Gameweek 21
Feb 11, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Mercedes-Benz-Arena
Mainz logo

Stuttgart
3 - 1
Mainz

Mittelstadt (45+2'), Leweling (45+4'), Undav (73')
Karazor (82')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Ajorque (76')
Guilavogui (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Stuttgart and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Mainz 1-1 Union Berlin
Wednesday, February 7 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Stuttgart 2-1 Mainz 05

Despite struggling to pick up wins and score goals this season, Mainz have been defensively secure since Siewert took over in November, only conceding eight goals in his 11 league games in charge. However, they will face the third highest goalscorers in the Bundesliga when they take on Stuttgart on Sunday, and we are struggling to envisage a scenario in which that run of conceding no more than one goal in a game under Siewert does not come to an end for the visitors. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 56.4%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 21.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.43%) and 2-0 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.34%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (5.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.

Result
StuttgartDrawMainz 05
56.4% (-0.409 -0.41) 22.14% (0.124 0.12) 21.45% (0.29 0.29)
Both teams to score 56.78% (0.015999999999998 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.91% (-0.182 -0.18)42.08% (0.186 0.19)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.51% (-0.184 -0.18)64.49% (0.188 0.19)
Stuttgart Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.24% (-0.191 -0.19)14.76% (0.197 0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57% (-0.372 -0.37)42.99% (0.377 0.38)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.61% (0.17100000000001 0.17)33.39% (-0.166 -0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.98% (0.184 0.18)70.01% (-0.181 -0.18)
Score Analysis
    Stuttgart 56.4%
    Mainz 05 21.45%
    Draw 22.14%
StuttgartDrawMainz 05
2-1 @ 9.89% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-0 @ 9.43% (0.013 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.02% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
3-1 @ 6.31% (-0.05 -0.05)
3-0 @ 5.75% (-0.072 -0.07)
3-2 @ 3.46% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-1 @ 3.02% (-0.045 -0.04)
4-0 @ 2.75% (-0.054 -0.05)
4-2 @ 1.66% (-0.017 -0.02)
5-1 @ 1.16% (-0.026 -0.03)
5-0 @ 1.05% (-0.028 -0.03)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 56.4%
1-1 @ 10.34% (0.06 0.06)
2-2 @ 5.43% (0.018999999999999 0.02)
0-0 @ 4.93% (0.040999999999999 0.04)
3-3 @ 1.27% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 22.14%
1-2 @ 5.67% (0.058999999999999 0.06)
0-1 @ 5.41% (0.07 0.07)
0-2 @ 2.96% (0.051 0.05)
1-3 @ 2.07% (0.031 0.03)
2-3 @ 1.98% (0.016 0.02)
0-3 @ 1.08% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 2.27%
Total : 21.45%

How you voted: Stuttgart vs Mainz

Stuttgart
89.4%
Draw
7.1%
Mainz 05
3.5%
85
Head to Head
Sep 16, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 4
Mainz
1-3
Stuttgart
Barreiro (69')
Caci (11')
Guirassy (56', 84', 90+7')
Stiller (60'), Anton (67')
May 21, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 33
Mainz
1-4
Stuttgart
Ingvartsen (23')
Kohr (61'), Bell (75'), Ajorque (90+5')
Endo (41'), Guirassy (64'), Fuhrich (78'), Coulibaly (90+1')
Endo (73')
Jan 21, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 16
Stuttgart
1-1
Mainz
Guirassy (36')
Ingvartsen (40' pen.)
Apr 16, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 30
Mainz
0-0
Stuttgart
Matarazzo (45+2'), Stenzel (70')
Nov 26, 2021 7.30pm
Gameweek 13
Stuttgart
2-1
Mainz
Ito (21'), Sosa (51')
Mangala (36'), Sosa (90+2')
Hack (39')
Caricol (9'), Boetius (90+5')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CBayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen34286089246590
2Stuttgart34234778393973
3Bayern MunichBayern34233894454972
4RB Leipzig34198777393865
5Borussia DortmundDortmund34189768432563
6Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt34111495150147
7Hoffenheim34137146666046
8Heidenheim341012125055-542
9Werder Bremen34119144854-642
10Freiburg34119144558-1342
11Augsburg34109155060-1039
12Wolfsburg34107174156-1537
13Mainz 05Mainz34714133951-1235
14Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach34713145667-1134
15Union BerlinUnion Berlin3496193358-2533
16VfL BochumVfL Bochum34712154274-3233
RFC Koln34512172860-3227
RSV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt3438233086-5617


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!