We say: Rigas Futbola Skola 1-2 HJK Helsinki
Rigas are certainly capable of turning the tie around on home soil, but we are finding it difficult to back the Latvian side on Tuesday night. HJK have put themselves in a strong position to progress, and we are also expecting them to win the second leg in Riga to record a 3-1 aggregate success.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 41.44%. A win for Rigas Futbola Skola had a probability of 34.18% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.07%) and 0-2 (6.31%). The likeliest Rigas Futbola Skola win was 2-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%).