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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 44.94%. A win for Portsmouth had a probability of 29.81% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (7.64%). The likeliest Portsmouth win was 0-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Cardiff City would win this match.
Result | ||
Cardiff City | Draw | Portsmouth |
44.94% ( -0.49) | 25.25% ( -0.11) | 29.81% ( 0.6) |
Both teams to score 54.73% ( 0.69) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.36% ( 0.74) | 48.64% ( -0.74) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.24% ( 0.67) | 70.76% ( -0.67) |
Cardiff City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.36% ( 0.09) | 21.64% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.23% ( 0.13) | 54.77% ( -0.13) |
Portsmouth Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.85% ( 0.81) | 30.15% ( -0.81) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.7% ( 0.96) | 66.3% ( -0.96) |
Score Analysis |
Cardiff City | Draw | Portsmouth |
1-0 @ 9.99% ( -0.27) 2-1 @ 9.16% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 7.64% ( -0.19) 3-1 @ 4.68% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.9% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 2.8% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 1.79% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.49% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.07% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.42% Total : 44.94% | 1-1 @ 11.97% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 6.52% ( -0.2) 2-2 @ 5.49% ( 0.11) 3-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.25% | 0-1 @ 7.82% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 7.18% ( 0.12) 0-2 @ 4.69% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 2.87% ( 0.11) 2-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.09) 0-3 @ 1.88% ( 0.07) Other @ 3.18% Total : 29.81% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 58 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 51 | 19 | 32 | 56 |
3 | Sunderland | 28 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 40 | 22 | 18 | 54 |
4 | Burnley | 27 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 31 | 9 | 22 | 53 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 46 | 34 | 12 | 44 |
6 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 42 |
7 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 28 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 41 |
8 | Watford | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 41 |
9 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 28 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 38 |
10 | Bristol City | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 37 |
11 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Norwich CityNorwich | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 43 | 39 | 4 | 36 |
13 | Coventry CityCoventry | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 37 | 37 | 0 | 35 |
14 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 35 |
15 | Swansea CitySwansea | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 34 |
16 | Preston North EndPreston | 28 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 34 |
17 | Millwall | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 31 |
18 | Stoke CityStoke | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 28 |
19 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 28 |
20 | Derby CountyDerby | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 27 |
21 | Hull City | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 26 |
22 | Portsmouth | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 26 |
23 | Luton TownLuton | 28 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 26 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 27 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 25 | 55 | -30 | 21 |
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