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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hull City win with a probability of 42.32%. A win for Cardiff City had a probability of 32.37% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hull City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.01%). The likeliest Cardiff City win was 0-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Hull City would win this match.
Result | ||
Hull City | Draw | Cardiff City |
42.32% ( 0.12) | 25.3% ( 0.06) | 32.37% ( -0.18) |
Both teams to score 55.76% ( -0.26) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.16% ( -0.31) | 47.84% ( 0.31) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.97% ( -0.28) | 70.02% ( 0.29) |
Hull City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.47% ( -0.07) | 22.52% ( 0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.9% ( -0.11) | 56.1% ( 0.12) |
Cardiff City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.97% ( -0.26) | 28.02% ( 0.27) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.33% ( -0.34) | 63.67% ( 0.34) |
Score Analysis |
Hull City | Draw | Cardiff City |
1-0 @ 9.41% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 8.92% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.01% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 4.43% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.48% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.82% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.65% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.05% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.24% Total : 42.32% | 1-1 @ 11.96% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.31% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 5.67% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.3% | 0-1 @ 8.03% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 7.61% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 5.11% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.23% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 2.41% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 2.17% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.03% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.8% Total : 32.37% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 60 | 19 | 41 | 63 |
2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 30 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 21 | 20 | 61 |
3 | Burnley | 30 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 58 |
4 | Sunderland | 29 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 55 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 34 | 29 | 5 | 45 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 30 | 10 | 14 | 6 | 39 | 27 | 12 | 44 |
7 | Middlesbrough | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 47 | 36 | 11 | 44 |
8 | Norwich CityNorwich | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 42 |
9 | Bristol City | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 38 | 35 | 3 | 42 |
10 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 43 | 46 | -3 | 42 |
11 | Coventry CityCoventry | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 | 38 | 3 | 41 |
12 | Watford | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 40 | 42 | -2 | 41 |
13 | Millwall | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 40 |
14 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 38 |
15 | Preston North EndPreston | 30 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 37 |
16 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 37 |
17 | Swansea CitySwansea | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 34 |
18 | Stoke CityStoke | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 28 | 37 | -9 | 32 |
19 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 33 | 51 | -18 | 31 |
20 | Portsmouth | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 30 |
21 | Hull City | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 29 |
22 | Derby CountyDerby | 30 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 27 |
23 | Luton TownLuton | 30 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 30 | 49 | -19 | 27 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 29 | 63 | -34 | 25 |
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