Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Aug 15, 2024 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Nilton Santos
Botafogo2 - 1Palmeiras
We said: Botafogo 1-0 Palmeiras
While Palmerias have been the more successful side in this fixture in recent years, their away form of late has been very poor and they were beaten by this opponent at this venue less than a month ago. Indeed, Botafogo have not been at their best lately either, but their home record is still among the best in their division and we feel they will edge Verdao to a first-leg lead in this tie. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 38.88%. A win for Palmeiras had a probability of 33.36% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.15%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Palmeiras win was 0-1 (10.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Botafogo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Botafogo | Draw | Palmeiras |
38.88% ( -0.42) | 27.75% ( 0.08) | 33.36% ( 0.34) |
| Both teams to score 48.28% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.46% ( -0.24) | 57.53% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.68% ( -0.19) | 78.32% ( 0.19) |
| Botafogo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.23% ( -0.35) | 28.77% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 35.39% ( -0.44) | 64.61% ( 0.44) |
| Palmeiras Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.77% ( 0.11) | 32.22% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 31.28% ( 0.12) | 68.71% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
Botafogo 38.88%
Palmeiras 33.35%
Draw 27.74%
| Botafogo | Draw | Palmeiras |
| 1-0 @ 11.54% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.15% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 7.2% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 3.38% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 2.99% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 1.92% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.05% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.72% Total : 38.88% | 1-1 @ 13.07% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 9.27% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.74% | 0-1 @ 10.49% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 7.41% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 5.94% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 2.8% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.24% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.74% ( -0)Other @ 2.73% Total : 33.35% |
How you voted: Botafogo vs Palmeiras
Botafogo
59.1%Draw
36.4%Palmeiras
4.5%22
Head to Head
Jul 18, 2024 1.30am
Jun 25, 2023 8pm
Oct 4, 2022 12am
Form Guide
