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EFL Cup
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EFL Cup | First Round
Aug 13, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Vicarage Road
MK Dons

Watford
5 - 0
MK Dons

Pollock (24'), Ince (45+1', 67', 74'), Baah (64')
Sierralta (70')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Williams (90'), Williams (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Watford and MK Dons, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Watford

All competitions
Last Game: Millwall 2-3 Watford
Saturday, August 10 at 12.30pm in Championship

MK Dons

All competitions
Last Game: MK Dons 1-2 Bradford
Saturday, August 10 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Watford 1-1 MK Dons (MK Dons win on penalties)

 Although Watford are two divisions higher than their opponents, the Dons do have a favourable record in recent matches against the Hornets. Additionally, considering the home side have lost their last three games in the EFL Cup, it is reasonable to assume they could struggle again on Tuesday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 39.9%. A win for Watford had a probability of 35.92% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.58%) and 0-2 (5.9%). The likeliest Watford win was 2-1 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.

Result
WatfordDrawMK Dons
35.92% (0.122 0.12) 24.17% (0.0090000000000003 0.01) 39.9% (-0.134 -0.13)
Both teams to score 60.68% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.16% (-0.029000000000003 -0.03)41.84% (0.027999999999999 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.76% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)64.24% (0.028000000000006 0.03)
Watford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.9% (0.049999999999997 0.05)23.1% (-0.053000000000001 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.05% (0.074999999999996 0.07)56.95% (-0.076999999999998 -0.08)
MK Dons Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.9% (-0.076999999999998 -0.08)21.09% (0.073 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.08% (-0.119 -0.12)53.92% (0.116 0.12)
Score Analysis
    Watford 35.92%
    MK Dons 39.9%
    Draw 24.17%
WatfordDrawMK Dons
2-1 @ 8.14% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
1-0 @ 7.14% (0.02 0.02)
2-0 @ 5.23% (0.023 0.02)
3-1 @ 3.98% (0.014 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.09% (0.004 0)
3-0 @ 2.56% (0.015 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.46% (0.008 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.13% (0.004 0)
4-0 @ 0.94% (0.007 0.01)
Other @ 2.26%
Total : 35.92%
1-1 @ 11.11% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 6.34% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-0 @ 4.87% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.61% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 24.17%
1-2 @ 8.65% (-0.014999999999999 -0.01)
0-1 @ 7.58% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-2 @ 5.9% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-3 @ 4.49% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-3 @ 3.29% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-3 @ 3.06% (-0.017 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.75% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.28% (-0.006 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.19% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 2.73%
Total : 39.9%

How you voted: Watford vs MK Dons

Watford
86.5%
Draw
9.6%
MK Dons
3.8%
52
Head to Head
Aug 23, 2022 7.45pm
Second Round
Watford
0-2
MK Dons
Dennis (45'), Burns (53')
O'Hora (45+5'), Devoy (76'), Oyegoke (79')
> Preview
Dec 4, 1999 3pm
MK Dons
5-0
Watford
Gayle (78'), Euell (67'), Earle (32'), Hartson (61'), Cort (15')
Aug 7, 1999 3pm
Watford
2-3
MK Dons
Kennedy (17' pen.), Ngonge (71')
Johnson (78' og.), Gayle (28'), Cort (10')
Blackwell (17')
rhs 2.0
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