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FA Cup
Crewe Alexandra
FA Cup | Second Round
Dec 12, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Alexandra Stadium
Bristol Rovers

Crewe
2 - 4
Bristol Rovers

Nevitt (65'), Rowe (73')
Offord (40'), Baker-Richardson (55')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Marquis (18'), Wilson (25'), Evans (42'), Cooney (49' og.)
Marquis (41'), Taylor (65'), Taylor (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Crewe Alexandra and Bristol Rovers, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Crewe Alexandra

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Grimsby Town 2-1 Crewe
Saturday, December 9 at 3pm in League Two

Bristol Rovers

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Bristol Rovers 1-1 Cheltenham
Saturday, December 9 at 3pm in League One

We said: Crewe Alexandra 1-1 Bristol Rovers

 Crewe are in excellent form and have proven difficult to beat over the past two months, even against sides in the division above. With Mangan potentially coming to the end of his spell in caretaker charge of Bristol Rovers, seeing them into the third round would be a huge achievement after a more-than-respectable set of results in charge, but this looks like it could go to a replay. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bristol Rovers win with a probability of 49.5%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 27.1% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bristol Rovers win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.69%) and 0-2 (7.66%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 2-1 (6.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bristol Rovers would win this match.

Result
Crewe AlexandraDrawBristol Rovers
27.1% (0.012 0.01) 23.39% (0.004999999999999 0) 49.5% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Both teams to score 59.05% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.91% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)42.08% (0.016000000000005 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.51% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)64.49% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Crewe Alexandra Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.28% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)28.72% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.45% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)64.55%
Bristol Rovers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.84% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)17.15% (0.013000000000002 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.6% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)47.39% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Crewe Alexandra 27.1%
    Bristol Rovers 49.5%
    Draw 23.39%
Crewe AlexandraDrawBristol Rovers
2-1 @ 6.76% (0.0020000000000007 0)
1-0 @ 6.15% (0.0039999999999996 0)
2-0 @ 3.83% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-1 @ 2.81% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-2 @ 2.48%
3-0 @ 1.6% (0.002 0)
Other @ 3.48%
Total : 27.1%
1-1 @ 10.83%
2-2 @ 5.96% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-0 @ 4.93% (0.0040000000000004 0)
3-3 @ 1.46% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 23.39%
1-2 @ 9.55% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-1 @ 8.69% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-2 @ 7.66% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-3 @ 5.61% (-0.0029999999999992 -0)
0-3 @ 4.5% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
2-3 @ 3.5% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
1-4 @ 2.47% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-4 @ 1.98% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-4 @ 1.54% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.99%
Total : 49.5%

How you voted: Crewe vs Bristol Rovers

Crewe Alexandra
39.3%
Draw
28.6%
Bristol Rovers
32.1%
28
Head to Head
May 1, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 45
Bristol Rovers
0-1
Crewe

Baldwin (41')
Ainley (19')
Jan 19, 2021 7pm
Gameweek 23
Crewe
3-2
Bristol Rovers
Kirk (4'), Wintle (23'), Lancashire (55')
Finney (31'), Offord (45'), Johnson (86')
Ehmer (47'), McCormick (51')
McCormick (45+4'), Harries (58')
Apr 9, 2012 3pm
Crewe
3-0
Bristol Rovers
Davis (49' pen.), Mellor (6')

Lund (18'), Bolger (76')
Dec 31, 2011 3pm
Bristol Rovers
2-5
Crewe
Harrold (9'), McGleish (48')
Carayol (23'), Stanley (50'), Sawyer (90')
Bolger (27' og.), Artell (44'), Powell (33', 90')
R Westwood (75'), Tootle (88')
Mar 17, 2009 3pm
Crewe
1-1
Bristol Rovers
Lawrence (70')
Duffy (74')
Disley (33')
rhs 2.0
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