Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerezo Osaka win with a probability of 41.43%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 29.66% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerezo Osaka win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.21%) and 1-2 (8.06%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 1-0 (10.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.