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Championship header 2

League One
Lincoln City
League One | Gameweek 29
Jan 20, 2024 at 3pm UK
LNER Stadium
Derby logo

Lincoln
0 - 0
Derby


Taylor (68'), Draper (68')
FT

Elder (18'), Wilson (45+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Lincoln City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lincoln City

All competitions
Last Game: Wycombe 1-1 Lincoln
Saturday, January 13 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 3-2 Burton Albion
Monday, January 15 at 8pm in League One

We said: Lincoln City 1-2 Derby County

 Derby have won each of their last five away trips, and we think that they will continue that run of form against a Lincoln side that has lost four of their previous five matches. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 60.33%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Lincoln City had a probability of 17.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.5%) and 1-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Lincoln City win it was 1-0 (5.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.

Result
Lincoln CityDrawDerby County
17.08% (0.041 0.04) 22.59% (0.018000000000001 0.02) 60.33% (-0.058999999999997 -0.06)
Both teams to score 47.84% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.75% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)50.24% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.8% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)72.19% (0.0020000000000095 0)
Lincoln City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.12% (0.050999999999995 0.05)42.88% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.81% (0.042999999999999 0.04)79.19% (-0.043999999999997 -0.04)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.75% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)16.24% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.23% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)45.77% (0.037999999999997 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Lincoln City 17.08%
    Derby County 60.32%
    Draw 22.59%
Lincoln CityDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 5.9% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
2-1 @ 4.54% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 2.5% (0.008 0.01)
3-1 @ 1.28% (0.004 0)
3-2 @ 1.16% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 17.08%
1-1 @ 10.72% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.97% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-2 @ 4.13% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
Other @ 0.78%
Total : 22.59%
0-1 @ 12.65% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 11.5% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-2 @ 9.74% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-3 @ 6.97% (-0.015 -0.01)
1-3 @ 5.9% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
0-4 @ 3.17% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
1-4 @ 2.68% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 2.5% (0.0020000000000002 0)
0-5 @ 1.15% (-0.004 -0)
2-4 @ 1.14%
1-5 @ 0.98% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 60.32%

How you voted: Lincoln vs Derby

Lincoln City
46.2%
Draw
7.7%
Derby County
46.2%
13
Head to Head
Dec 21, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 23
Derby
3-1
Lincoln
Hourihane (26'), Wilson (65'), Collins (77')
Hourihane (84'), Collins (90+3')
Mandroiu (45+2' pen.)
Jackson (57'), Vale (85'), Erhahon (89')
> Preview
Sep 19, 2023 7pm
Group Stage
Derby
2-0
Lincoln
Barkhuizen (51'), Sibley (77')
Fornah (4'), Elder (36')

Duffy (53')
Feb 14, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 32
Derby
1-1
Lincoln
Hourihane (69')
Shodipo (43')
Sep 13, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 9
Lincoln
2-0
Derby
Diamond (12' pen.), House (68')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham26186244182660
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe28177454292558
3Wrexham28157641241752
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield27146739231648
5Stockport CountyStockport28138743281547
6Leyton Orient27135940241644
7Bolton WanderersBolton28135104342144
8Charlton AthleticCharlton2712783426843
9Barnsley28126104139242
10Reading27125104241141
11Lincoln CityLincoln28108103433138
12Mansfield TownMansfield26114113432237
13Blackpool2791083938137
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham27107103231137
15Stevenage2610792324-137
16Wigan AthleticWigan2796122627-133
17Exeter CityExeter2895143242-1032
18Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2886144452-830
19Bristol Rovers2784152543-1828
20Northampton TownNorthampton2869132543-1827
21Burton Albion2859143044-1424
22Crawley TownCrawley2666142646-2024
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge2756162849-2121
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2755172647-2120
> League One Full Table


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