A surprisingly poor Palmeiras can end a five-match winless run in all competitions when they welcome Fortaleza to Allianz Parque on matchday 16 of the Brasileiro Serie A campaign this Saturday.
The defending league champions could not find a way through Internacional last weekend, drawing 0-0, while Leao do Pici lost 1-0 at Cuiaba as they remain two points behind Palestra in the table.
Match preview
© Reuters
After coasting to a relatively comfortable Serie A title victory last season, 2023 so far has been a bumpier ride for Palmeiras, who are sixth in the table, dropping points in nine of their opening 15 league fixtures.
With only 25 points domestically thus far, it is their worst start to a Serie A campaign since Abel Ferreira took charge, while this team have already allowed nearly half as many goals (13) in this year's competition than they had after 38 league games a season ago (27).
Palestra have yet to win this month, despite leading at the interval in three of their matches played and are without a victory in five successive domestic outings, their longest winless run in Serie A since 2021 (five).
In 2022 this team never dropped points in consecutive league fixtures at home, but they head into this upcoming encounter winless in two straight home outings in this competition, while over half of its goals conceded in Serie A this year have occurred at Allianz Parque (seven).
They have not had much difficulty when Fortaleza pay a visit though, outscoring them 7-0 in the last two home matches, while defeating them five times overall by three or more goals.
This team have not allowed an opening half goal since suffering a 1-0 loss at home to Botafogo at the end of June, conceding just three times domestically in the opening half at Allianz Parque all season, though two of those strikes occurred in stoppage time.
© Reuters
In their opening 15 matches of the new domestic campaign, Fortaleza have been sharper in every discipline from what we saw at this same stage in 2022, currently with 23 points, 13 more than a year ago.
It took them until matchday nine last season to finally win a league contest, but in 2023 Juan Pablo Vojvoda only had to wait until matchday two for them to earn a victory, while his side have not suffered consecutive domestic defeats since September 2022 (two).
Vojvoda has traditionally employed a 3-4-1-2 formation this year, which seems to provide a nice balance for his team, making it much simpler for them to either counterattack or play with their share of possession.
That formation has also made it easier for this group to defend their opponents in transition, with Fortaleza allowing the third-fewest goals in Serie A so far this year (12).
The intimidating environment of Allianz Parque seems to get the best of Leao do Pici, who have only captured two of their seven matches played there in all competitions, failing to score on five occasions.
They are unbeaten domestically in 2023 when scoring first, though Fortaleza have dropped two of their previous three league fixtures away from home, having been shut out by Flamengo (2-0) and Botafogo (2-0), while blanking Cruzeiro in between (1-0).
Team News
© Reuters
Ferreira inserted six newcomers into the starting 11 last Sunday who did not begin their second leg Copa do Brasil tie versus Sao Paulo, with Marcos Rocha, Murilo, Gabriel Menino, Artur, Jose Manuel Lopez and Jhon Jhon replacing Luan, Mayke, Richard Rios, Dudu, Rony and Endrick.
Last weekend, Weverton picked up his first clean since June, stopping all four Internacional efforts, while Gustavo Gomez continues to search for his first of the 2023 domestic campaign after netting nine times a season ago.
A brace from Rony, along with a goal and two assists by Dudu, enabled Palestra to ease past Fortaleza in their previous domestic home fixture against them (4-0), while goals from Richard Rios, Bruno Tabata and Raphael Veiga powered them to a 3-0 triumph when the two teams met at Allianz Parque in the Copa do Brasil last season, as Verdao eventually advanced from that tie 3-1 on aggregate.
Fortaleza will be without Hercules for the remainder of the campaign because of a torn ACL, while Tinga could be back in early August from a thigh injury.
Yago Pikachu scored the last goal for Rei Leao do Brasil in this competition as his 84th-minute strike earlier this month was all they would need to defeat Athletico Paranaense 1-0, when Joao Ricardo collected his fifth clean sheet of the season, the fourth-most among Serie A goalkeepers this year.
Juan Martin Lucero had the only goal when they defeated Palmeiras at home in the Copa do Brasil last year (1-0), while Fernando Miguel made six stops for a shutout in a 0-0 draw domestically versus Palestra in 2022.
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Rocha, Gomez, Murilo, Piquerez; Ze Rafael, Rios, Veiga; Artur, Endrick, Jhon Jhon
Fortaleza possible starting lineup:
Ricardo; Britez, Benevenuto, Titi; Crispim, Alexandre, Ze Welison, Pacheco; Pochettino; Pikachu, Romero
We say: Palmeiras 3-0 Fortaleza
Fortaleza have been on the receiving end of numerous lopsided results at Allianz Parque, and they are catching Palestra at a bad time once again.
Unfortunately for the visitors, we believe they might suffer a similar fate this weekend against a Verdao team who rarely show mercy to the Ceara-based club when they come to town.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
