Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 46.19%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 31.23% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.64%) and 0-2 (6.11%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 2-1 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.