We said: Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-1 Watford
Many wondered where the goals would come from under Hodgson at Watford, but Hernandez has provided an answer, and Wolves are not the same defensive force they were a couple of months back.
The Hornets' resilience on the road also makes this an enticing affair, but a fired-up Lage will be demanding an immediate response from his players and has plenty of options for change, so we can see the hosts ending their losing streak by a narrow margin.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolverhampton Wanderers win with a probability of 43.79%. A draw had a probability of 28.4% and a win for Watford had a probability of 27.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wolverhampton Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.74%) and 2-1 (8.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.09%), while for a Watford win it was 0-1 (10.25%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wolverhampton Wanderers would win this match.