Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 58.3%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Porto had a probability of 19.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 2-0 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.35%), while for a Porto win it was 0-1 (5.39%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Porto |
58.3% ( 2) | 21.97% ( -0.68) | 19.73% ( -1.33) |
Both teams to score 54.65% ( 0.15) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.38% ( 1.21) | 43.62% ( -1.21) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.99% ( 1.17) | 66.01% ( -1.18) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.34% ( 1.07) | 14.66% ( -1.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.19% ( 2.02) | 42.81% ( -2.03) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.03% ( -0.64) | 35.96% ( 0.64) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.25% ( -0.66) | 72.74% ( 0.66) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Porto |
1-0 @ 10.12% ( -0.15) 2-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 9.72% ( 0.21) 3-1 @ 6.36% ( 0.26) 3-0 @ 6.22% ( 0.36) 3-2 @ 3.25% ( 0.08) 4-1 @ 3.05% ( 0.23) 4-0 @ 2.99% ( 0.28) 4-2 @ 1.56% ( 0.09) 5-1 @ 1.17% ( 0.13) 5-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.14) Other @ 2.77% Total : 58.3% | 1-1 @ 10.35% ( -0.34) 0-0 @ 5.27% ( -0.29) 2-2 @ 5.08% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.15% Total : 21.96% | 0-1 @ 5.39% ( -0.39) 1-2 @ 5.29% ( -0.27) 0-2 @ 2.76% ( -0.25) 1-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.1) Other @ 1.81% Total : 19.73% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 6 | 33 | 33 |
2 | Porto | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 8 | 22 | 30 |
3 | Benfica | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 7 | 23 | 28 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 24 |
5 | Braga | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 23 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 21 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 17 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
9 | Rio AveRio Ave | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 15 |
10 | Casa Pia | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 13 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 13 |
12 | BoavistaBoavista | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 10 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 10 |
14 | AVS | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 10 |
15 | Nacional | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 9 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 9 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 8 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 8 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |