Primeira Liga | Gameweek 25
Mar 19, 2023 at 3.30pm UK
Estádio Pina Manique
Casa Pia2 - 0Maritimo
We said: Casa Pia 1-0 Maritimo
With two of the division's lowest scorers on show, this looks likely to be a tight affair that could be decided by a single goal. Neither team are in very good form and both would benefit hugely from a morale-boosting win, and the signs all point to that going the way of Casa Pia given Maritimo's terrible away record. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 43.76%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 28.34% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.56%) and 2-1 (8.51%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 0-1 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Maritimo |
43.76% ( -0.72) | 27.9% ( 0.02) | 28.34% ( 0.69) |
| Both teams to score 46% ( 0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
