Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 59.44%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 18.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.54%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.53%), while for a Maritimo win it was 1-0 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
Result | ||
Maritimo | Draw | Braga |
18.39% ( 0.17) | 22.17% ( 0.16) | 59.44% ( -0.32) |
Both teams to score 51.61% ( -0.2) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.52% ( -0.42) | 46.48% ( 0.42) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.24% ( -0.39) | 68.76% ( 0.4) |
Maritimo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.91% ( -0.05) | 39.09% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.19% ( -0.05) | 75.81% ( 0.05) |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.74% ( -0.24) | 15.26% ( 0.25) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.06% ( -0.46) | 43.94% ( 0.47) |
Score Analysis |
Maritimo | Draw | Braga |
1-0 @ 5.6% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 4.95% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 1.55% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.21% Total : 18.39% | 1-1 @ 10.53% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 5.96% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 4.65% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.16% | 0-1 @ 11.21% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 10.54% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 9.9% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 6.61% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 6.21% ( -0.06) 0-4 @ 3.11% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 2.92% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 2.91% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.03) 0-5 @ 1.17% ( -0.03) 1-5 @ 1.1% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.4% Total : 59.44% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 37 |
2 | Porto | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 37 |
3 | Benfica | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 8 | 26 | 35 |
4 | Braga | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 28 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 15 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 27 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Casa Pia | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 20 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 20 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 19 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 17 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | AVS | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
15 | Nacional | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 12 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 11 |
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