Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 62.24%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Famalicao had a probability of 16.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.66%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.33%), while for a Famalicao win it was 1-0 (5.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Famalicao | Draw | Porto |
16.02% ( -0.1) | 21.74% ( 0.01) | 62.24% ( 0.09) |
Both teams to score 48.23% ( -0.24) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.43% ( -0.22) | 48.58% ( 0.22) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.3% ( -0.2) | 70.7% ( 0.2) |
Famalicao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.77% ( -0.26) | 43.23% ( 0.26) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.52% ( -0.22) | 79.49% ( 0.22) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.95% ( -0.04) | 15.05% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.45% ( -0.08) | 43.56% ( 0.09) |
Score Analysis |
Famalicao | Draw | Porto |
1-0 @ 5.46% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 4.33% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 2.29% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 1.21% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.15% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.59% Total : 16.02% | 1-1 @ 10.33% 0-0 @ 6.51% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 4.1% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.8% Total : 21.74% | 0-1 @ 12.32% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 11.66% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 9.78% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 7.37% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 6.18% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 3.49% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 2.92% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.59% ( -0.03) 0-5 @ 1.32% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.23% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 1.11% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.27% Total : 62.23% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 37 |
2 | Porto | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 37 |
3 | Benfica | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 8 | 26 | 35 |
4 | Braga | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 28 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 15 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 27 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Casa Pia | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 20 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 20 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 19 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 17 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | AVS | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
15 | Nacional | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 12 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 11 |
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