PSV Eindhoven and NAC Breda face off at the Philips Stadion in the first quarter-final of the 2021-22 KNVB Beker on Tuesday.
The visitors are the only remaining lower league side left in the tournament and are faced with a Herculean task of dumping out one of the frontrunners to go all the way.
Match preview
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Having led the Eredivisie up until late January, PSV now find themselves five points off the pace following Saturday's 2-1 defeat to AZ Alkmaar.
Roger Schmidt's men took the lead through Armando Obispo in the 19th minute before goals from Bruno Martins Indi and Jesper Karlsson turned the game on its head.
That defeat has put The Rood-witten's title hopes in real jeopardy with Ajax now firmly in the driving seat in the race to be crowned champions come May.
However, PSV are still going strong in the Dutch Cup off the back of 2-0 and 2-1 victories over Fortuna Sittard and Telstar respectively.
Lying in store next for them is a last-eight clash versus an opposing outfit who have lost seven of the last eight meetings between the teams since 2014.
Tuesday's hosts did lose the most recent encounter back in 2020 which came in this same competition and will be keen to exact revenge this time around.
NAC Breda set out to eliminate a third straight Eredivisie side having knocked out Utrecht and most recently PEC Zwolle in the previous two rounds.
Edwin de Graaf's men have failed to replicate that form in the Eerste Divisie where they have failed to win any of their last six outings and currently sit 11th.
The Pearl of the South have more than surpassed their last season's performance in this tournament as they were dumped out in the Round of 64 by Groningen.
Just under half a decade since their only title back in 1973, Tuesday's visitors can take a huge step towards repeating the feat with a victory come the full-time whistle.
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Team News
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New signing Joey Veerman put up a man-of-the-match display in the last round against Telstar and will be looking to deliver the goods once again.
Eran Zahavi has made three consecutive appearances off the bench since his return from injury but could be named in the starting XI for this one.
Noni Madueke, Ryan Thomas, Mees Kreekels, Carlos Vinicius, Shurandy Sambo and Andre Ramalho all miss out through injury for the hosts.
Odysseus Velanas had a direct hand in both of his side's two goals over the weekend, and the 23-year-old is one to look out for.
Breda will be without the services of Dutch forward Mario Bilate, who is yet to feature since September due to a long-term knee problem.
PSV Eindhoven possible starting lineup:
Drommel; Mwene, Bosacgli, Obispo, Max; Gutierrez, Veerman, Gotze; Zahavi, Doan, Bruma
NAC Breda possible starting lineup:
Olij; Mashart, Adilehou, Malone, Hilterman; Seuntjens, Cagro, Agougil; Velanas, Bannis, De Rooy
We say: PSV Eindhoven 2-0 NAC Breda
Experience usually comes in handy in games of this nature and PSV certainly have plenty of it compared to their opponents. We are backing them to emerge triumphant and progress into the last four.
Top tip
Adepoju Marvellous
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 74.99%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for NAC Breda had a probability of 10.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.95%) and 3-0 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.59%), while for a NAC Breda win it was 1-2 (3.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
