Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carrarese win with a probability of 43.62%. A draw had a probability of 29% and a win for Salernitana had a probability of 27.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carrarese win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.88%) and 2-1 (8.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.15%), while for a Salernitana win it was 0-1 (10.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carrarese would win this match.