Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 42.9%. A win for Fortuna Dusseldorf had a probability of 31.16% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Fortuna Dusseldorf win was 0-1 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.