MX23RW : Sunday, September 29 19:58:33| >> :60:140:140:
Excelsior
Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs | Third Round | 2nd Leg
Jun 2, 2024 at 5pm UK
Van Donge & De Roo Stadion
NAC Breda

Excelsior
4 - 1
NAC Breda

Parrott (20', 35' pen., 50'), Kemper (42')
FT(HT: 3-0)
Staring (58')
Garbett (63'), Staring (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie Promotion Playoff final between SBV Excelsior and NAC Breda, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

SBV Excelsior

All competitions
Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs
Last Game: NAC Breda 6-2 Excelsior
Tuesday, May 28 at 7pm in Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs

NAC Breda

All competitions
Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs
Last Game: NAC Breda 6-2 Excelsior
Tuesday, May 28 at 7pm in Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs

We said: SBV Excelsior 3-2 NAC Breda (NAC Breda win 8-5 on aggregate)

 Neither side is renowned for their defensive stability, so more goals should flow as Excelsior seek to close their four-goal deficit. The home side may restore some pride by securing victory on the night, but NAC Breda will claim the ultimate prize of a place in next season's Eredivisie. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 46.21%. A win for NAC Breda had a probability of 31.27% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.57%) and 2-0 (6.07%). The likeliest NAC Breda win was 1-2 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.79%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that SBV Excelsior would win this match.

Result
SBV ExcelsiorDrawNAC Breda
46.21% (0.059000000000005 0.06) 22.52% (-0.026 -0.03) 31.27% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
Both teams to score 65.23% (0.078999999999994 0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.77% (0.10899999999999 0.11)35.23% (-0.107 -0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.76% (0.122 0.12)57.24% (-0.12 -0.12)
SBV Excelsior Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.23% (0.064999999999998 0.06)15.77% (-0.063000000000001 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.1% (0.11799999999999 0.12)44.9% (-0.115 -0.12)
NAC Breda Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.44% (0.036000000000001 0.04)22.56% (-0.035 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.85% (0.053000000000004 0.05)56.15% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    SBV Excelsior 46.21%
    NAC Breda 31.27%
    Draw 22.52%
SBV ExcelsiorDrawNAC Breda
2-1 @ 9.04% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-0 @ 6.57% (-0.021 -0.02)
2-0 @ 6.07% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-1 @ 5.56% (0.011 0.01)
3-2 @ 4.14% (0.013000000000001 0.01)
3-0 @ 3.74% (0.004 0)
4-1 @ 2.57% (0.011 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.91% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.73% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
5-1 @ 0.95% (0.006 0.01)
4-3 @ 0.95% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.98%
Total : 46.21%
1-1 @ 9.79% (-0.022 -0.02)
2-2 @ 6.73% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-0 @ 3.56% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-3 @ 2.06% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 0.4%
Total : 22.52%
1-2 @ 7.29% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-1 @ 5.3% (-0.024 -0.02)
0-2 @ 3.95% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.62% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-3 @ 3.34% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.96% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.35% (0.0010000000000001 0)
2-4 @ 1.24% (0.004 0)
Other @ 3.24%
Total : 31.27%

How you voted: Excelsior vs NAC Breda

SBV Excelsior
50.0%
Draw
10.7%
NAC Breda
39.3%
28
Head to Head
May 28, 2024 7pm
Third Round 1st Leg
NAC Breda
6-2
Excelsior
Omgba (12'), Janosek (39' pen.), Van den Bergh (42'), Koscelnik (74'), Mar Omarsson (78', 90+4')
Lucassen (17'), van de Merbel (45+4'), Staring (52')
Duijvestijn (25'), Parrott (45+6' pen.)
Zagre (15')
Duijvestijn (38'), Zagre (72')
> Preview
May 6, 2022 7pm
Gameweek 38
Excelsior
2-2
NAC Breda
Dallinga (45+1'), Niemeijer (48')
Driouech (71')
Velanas (10'), Malone (90+4')
Banzuzi (65'), Velanas (71')
Oct 1, 2021 7pm
Gameweek 9
NAC Breda
4-1
Excelsior
Haye (45+1'), El Yaakoubi (71' og.), Seuntjens (85'), De Rooij (87')
Velanas (19'), Haye (35')
Duku (64')
Nieuwpoort (45+1')
Apr 23, 2021 5.45pm
Gameweek 35
NAC Breda
1-2
Excelsior
El Allouchi (45' pen.)
Adilehou (15')
Niemeijer (55', 60')
Mendes Moreira (75'), Skogen (77')
Jan 3, 2021 11.15am
Gameweek 18
Excelsior
0-3
NAC Breda
Fiorini (17'), De Rooij (44'), Bilate (86')
van Hooijdonk (41'), Schouten (86')
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