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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 41.06%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 35.42% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.96%) and 0-2 (5.74%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.
Result | ||
SBV Excelsior | Draw | NEC |
35.42% ( 0.12) | 23.52% ( 0.22) | 41.06% ( -0.34) |
Both teams to score 63.03% ( -0.83) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.26% ( -1.09) | 38.74% ( 1.09) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.96% ( -1.16) | 61.04% ( 1.16) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.05% ( -0.44) | 21.95% ( 0.44) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.77% ( -0.67) | 55.23% ( 0.67) |
NEC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.75% ( -0.6) | 19.24% ( 0.6) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.04% ( -1) | 50.96% ( 1) |
Score Analysis |
SBV Excelsior | Draw | NEC |
2-1 @ 8% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 6.41% ( 0.24) 2-0 @ 4.86% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 4.05% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 3.33% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 2.46% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.53% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.26% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 2.59% Total : 35.42% | 1-1 @ 10.55% ( 0.2) 2-2 @ 6.6% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 4.22% ( 0.21) 3-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.52% | 1-2 @ 8.7% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.96% ( 0.23) 0-2 @ 5.74% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 4.78% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 3.62% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 3.15% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.97% ( -0.08) 2-4 @ 1.49% ( -0.08) 0-4 @ 1.3% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.36% Total : 41.06% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 13 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 45 | 9 | 36 | 36 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 31 |
3 | Ajax | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 11 | 16 | 29 |
4 | Feyenoord | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 28 |
5 | FC Twente | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 25 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 20 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 18 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 17 |
9 | NECNijmegen | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 16 |
10 | Willem II | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 16 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 16 |
12 | Heerenveen | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 14 |
13 | Heracles | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 13 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 12 |
15 | Groningen | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 30 | -24 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 5 |
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