Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 53.77%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 23.95% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.47%) and 0-2 (8.08%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 2-1 (6.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.21%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
Result | ||
Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne City |
23.95% ( 0.34) | 22.27% ( 0.23) | 53.77% ( -0.57) |
Both teams to score 59.69% ( -0.41) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.23% ( -0.73) | 39.77% ( 0.73) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.87% ( -0.76) | 62.13% ( 0.77) |
Adelaide United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.08% ( -0.12) | 29.92% ( 0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.97% ( -0.15) | 66.02% ( 0.15) |
Melbourne City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.18% ( -0.44) | 14.82% ( 0.44) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.89% ( -0.84) | 43.11% ( 0.84) |
Score Analysis |
Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne City |
2-1 @ 6.16% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 5.35% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 3.23% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 2.48% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.37% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.07% Total : 23.95% | 1-1 @ 10.21% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.43% ( 0.15) 3-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.24% Total : 22.27% | 1-2 @ 9.75% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.47% ( 0.16) 0-2 @ 8.08% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 6.21% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 5.14% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 3.75% ( -0.07) 1-4 @ 2.96% ( -0.09) 0-4 @ 2.46% ( -0.07) 2-4 @ 1.79% ( -0.06) 1-5 @ 1.13% ( -0.05) 0-5 @ 0.94% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.11% Total : 53.77% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
2 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
3 | Auckland FC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
4 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
5 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
6 | Macarthur | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
7 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
8 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 4 |
9 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
10 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 1 |
13 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
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