Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 53.75%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 23.28% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.62%) and 2-0 (8.76%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (6.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.