Aiming to pull five points clear in the race for the Scudetto, AC Milan host a Fiorentina side keenly pursuing European qualification on Sunday afternoon.
Playing just before city rivals Inter, the Rossoneri meet their fellow beaten Coppa Italia semi-finalists at San Siro, with a first Serie A title since 2011 almost within touching distance.
Match preview
© Reuters
Events over the past week have put Milan in pole position to secure a 19th national title, more than a decade after their last, and they have the Scudetto's destiny in their own hands with just four games left to play.
Stefano Pioli's men arrived at Stadio Olimpico last Sunday having seen a 13-match unbeaten run ended by old foes Inter, after crashing out of the Coppa Italia 3-0 on aggregate, but they were to enjoy better fortunes against fellow top-six side Lazio.
Following an early setback, when Capocannoniere leader Ciro Immobile fired the capital club into a fourth-minute lead, Olivier Giroud's equaliser at the start of the second half was followed by a precious last-gasp winner from Sandro Tonali, who stayed composed to control a header from substitute Zlatan Ibrahimovic and steer home in the 92nd minute - sparking wild celebrations among the travelling Rossoneri faithful.
Having entered this week leading the Serie A standings by just two points, and with once fewer game to play, Inter's subsequent slip-up at Bologna - from where the Nerazzurri returned empty-handed - leaves Milan effectively three points ahead due to a superior head-to-head record in the league.
Since the beginning of 2022, Pioli's side have responded to a decrease in their attacking output - with Ibrahimovic sidelined for several weeks, and others failing to fully fire in the final third - by tightening up even further at the back.
Conceding just eight goals in 15 league games since the turn of the year, only Liverpool have let in fewer across the top five European leagues during that time.
With clean sheets in each of their last three home fixtures in Serie A, the Rossoneri will now seek a fourth on the bounce for the first time in over three years, as they attempt to inch closer to Calcio's ultimate prize.
© Reuters
After a spectacular 4-3 victory in November's fixture - when both Ibrahimovic and the now-departed Dusan Vlahovic bagged a brace - Fiorentina could not only dent Milan's title hopes on Sunday, but also do the double over their second-city counterparts for the first time in 21 years.
However, still reeling from a disastrous defensive display that contributed to their third straight defeat in all competitions, the Viola will visit San Siro amid a worrying stumble towards the finish line.
Though the Tuscan outfit previously allowed struggling Salernitana to claim all three points at Stadio Artemio Franchi, the end of a six-game unbeaten league run coincided with Juventus, Roma and Lazio also failing to win; leaving Fiorentina sixth in the Serie A standings.
However, Vincenzo Italiano now sees his side on the brink of posting three successive losses for the first time since the end of 2019, after they were humbled by mid-table Udinese on Wednesday night - conceding two late goals to end up on the wrong end of a 4-0 result.
Despite their recent setbacks - which also include a cup exit to old foes Juventus - Fiorentina still possess the second-best home record in Serie A this season, having accumulated 35 points from 16 matches - one more than Milan. Their form on the road, though, has been modest by contrast, and could be the cause of them missing out on a return to Europe.
Italiano's men have conceded in each of their last 13 away matches in the top flight - taking only as many points home as Tuscan rivals Empoli this term - so troubles on their travels may well continue at the grand old Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
- W
- W
- D
- D
- W
- W
- W
- D
- D
- W
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Milan's hopes of maintaining momentum have been given a boost by both Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Ismael Bennacer being able to train this week, and the pair should be available to coach Stefano Pioli.
Ibrahimovic has been involved in more goals against Fiorentina than any other Serie A side (15: 11 of his own and four assists), and the veteran's only league brace this season came in the reverse fixture. Aged 40 years and 210 days on Sunday, should the Swedish striker find the net he would become the second-oldest scorer in Serie A history - Rossoneri legend Alessandro Costacurta holds the record at over 41 years.
After his goal against Lazio, Olivier Giroud is favourite to start ahead of 'Ibra', who has been plagued by injuries of late, while long-term absentee Simon Kjaer is joined on the sidelines by full-back Alessandro Florenzi.
Fiorentina have their own ongoing duel for the lone striker's role, as Arthur Cabral and Krzysztof Piatek continue to rotate as the Viola's Vlahovic replacement.
The former is expected to start, after ex-Milan striker Piatek drew a blank against Udinese, with another former Rossonero forward, Riccardo Saponara, hoping to hold off strong competition to provide him with support.
Gaetano Castrovilli was recently ruled out for several months with a serious knee injury, so Alfred Duncan and Youssef Maleh will contend for his place in the visitors' midfield trio.
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Calabria, Kalulu, Tomori, Hernandez; Bennacer, Tonali; Messias, Kessie, Leao; Giroud
Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
Terracciano; Odriozola, Igor, Milenkovic, Biraghi; Bonaventura, Amrabat, Duncan; Gonzalez, Cabral, Saponara
We say: AC Milan 1-0 Fiorentina
Milan and Fiorentina have not drawn a Serie A fixture at San Siro since 2014, but this weekend's encounter could be a close-run affair, given the stakes for either side.
An aberration against Inter aside, the Rossoneri have been defensively resolute for the past few months, so they can keep their visitors at arm's length and rely on their established ability to nick points by the slimmest of margins.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 63.31%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Fiorentina had a probability of 15.94%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.01%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.85%), while for a Fiorentina win it was 0-1 (4.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-0 win for AC Milan in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AC Milan.
