We said: Libya 2-0 Benin
Benin have lost nine of their previous 12 road games in AFCON qualifying, and another defeat could be in the offing in Libya.
A victory by two goals then puts the North African side above Rohr's men due to the second tiebreaker — goal difference in head-to-head matches among tied teams — leaving the second qualifying spot to the result of Nigeria's match with Rwanda.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Libya win with a probability of 44.2%. A draw had a probability of 30.2% and a win for Benin had a probability of 25.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Libya win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.39%) and 2-1 (7.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.51%), while for a Benin win it was 0-1 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.