Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Jun 17, 2023 at 4pm UK

FNB Stadium

South Africa
2 - 1
Morocco

Munir (5' og.), Lepasa (48')
Tau (10'), Mayambela (90+4')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Ziyech (60')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between South Africa and Morocco, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

South Africa

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Liberia 1-2 South Africa
Tuesday, March 28 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Morocco	3	3	9
2	Ivory Coast	3	3	6
3	South Africa	3	-1	3
4	Namibia	3	-5	0

Morocco

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Morocco 0-0 Cape Verde
Monday, June 12 at 8pm in International Friendlies

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Morocco	3	3	7
2	Croatia	3	3	5
3	Belgium	3	-1	4
4	Canada	3	-5	0

We said: South Africa 0-1 Morocco

South Africa are currently on a fine run of results and will be backing themselves this weekend in front of their home supporters. However, we expect Morocco to have too much quality for the Bafana Bafana. Given the gulf in class and quality between the two sides, we fancy the Atlas Lions coming out on top this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a South Africa win with a probability of 53.14%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Morocco had a probability of 20.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a South Africa win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.09%) and 2-1 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for a Morocco win it was 0-1 (8.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that South Africa would win this match.

Result
South Africa	Draw	Morocco
53.14% ( 2.37)	26.36% ( -0.35)	20.5% ( -2.02)

Both teams to score 43% (

-1.48)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.32% (

-0.64)

59.68% (

0.63)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.01% (

-0.49)

79.99% (

0.49)

South Africa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.37% (

0.77)

22.63% (

-0.78)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.74% (

1.13)

56.26% (

-1.14)

Morocco Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.58% (

-2.49)

44.42% (

2.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.53% (

-2.09)

80.47% (

2.09)

Score Analysis

South Africa 53.13%

Morocco 20.5%

Draw 26.35%

South Africa	Draw	Morocco
1-0 @ 14.93% ( 0.68) 2-0 @ 11.09% ( 0.74) 2-1 @ 9% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.5% ( 0.49) 3-1 @ 4.46% ( 0.11) 4-0 @ 2.04% ( 0.22) 3-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 1.66% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.64% Total : 53.13%	1-1 @ 12.12% ( -0.26) 0-0 @ 10.05% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 3.65% ( -0.26) Other @ 0.53% Total : 26.35%	0-1 @ 8.16% ( -0.37) 1-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.46) 0-2 @ 3.31% ( -0.4) 1-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.23) 2-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.14) Other @ 1.79% Total : 20.5%