Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 10, 2023 at 5pm UK

Stade Rene Gaillard

Togo
3 - 2
Cape Verde

Denkey (40' pen., 77'), Moutalabou Ouattara (87')
Moutalabou Ouattara (89')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Pina (4'), Tavares (20')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Togo and Cape Verde, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Togo

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Eswatini 0-2 Togo
Sunday, June 18 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Congo DR	3	3	7
2	Morocco	3	2	6
3	Ivory Coast	3	-1	2
4	Togo	3	-4	1

Cape Verde

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Cape Verde 3-1 Burkina Faso
Sunday, June 18 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Cameroon	3	4	7
2	Burkina Faso	3	0	4
3	Cape Verde	3	0	4
4	Ethiopia	3	-4	1

While Togo have nothing to play for, we expect Cape Verde to come out guns blazing as they look to finish as Group B winners. The Blue Sharks boast a superior and more experienced squad and we fancy them picking up all three points, albeit by the odd goal. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Togo win with a probability of 38.89%. A win for Cape Verde had a probability of 31.68% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Togo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.68%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Cape Verde win was 0-1 (11.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Togo would win this match.

Result
Togo	Draw	Cape Verde
38.89% ( 0.23)	29.43% ( -0.06)	31.68% ( -0.18)

Both teams to score 43.22% (

0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.39% (

0.15)

63.61% (

-0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.09% (

0.1)

82.91% (

-0.1)

Togo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.21% (

0.22)

31.79% (

-0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.78% (

0.25)

68.22% (

-0.25)

Cape Verde Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.36% (

-0.05)

36.64% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.57% (

-0.05)

73.43% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Togo 38.88%

Cape Verde 31.67%

Draw 29.43%

Togo	Draw	Cape Verde
1-0 @ 13.34% 2-1 @ 7.68% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 7.65% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 2.93% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 2.92% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.47% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.88% Total : 38.88%	1-1 @ 13.4% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 11.64% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 3.86% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.53% Total : 29.43%	0-1 @ 11.69% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 6.73% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.87% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 2.25% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.97% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.29% ( 0) Other @ 1.88% Total : 31.67%