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America Mineiro
Brasileiro | Gameweek 20
Sep 11, 2021 at 8pm UK
Estadio Independencia
Athletico Paranaense

America Mineiro
2 - 0
Athletico PR

Azevedo (48'), Kal (70')
Azevedo (24')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Vinicius (45+1')

Preview: America Mineiro vs. Athletico Paranaense - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Brasileiro clash between America Mineiro and Athletico Paranaense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Athletico Paranaense will look to break a six-game league winless run on Saturday, when they make the trip to take on America Mineiro.

The hosts have enjoyed an upturn in form after a poor start to the season, while their visitors have dropped to ninth spot in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A table following their difficult spell.


Match preview

Athletico Paranaense's Richard celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on June 30, 2021© Reuters

After winning promotion last year, America Mineiro had a particularly tough start to life in the top flight, collecting just three points from their first seven games to immediately fall into the drop zone.

While they bounced back with consecutive victories over Bahia and Santos, Vagner Mancini's side went on another five-game winless run in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A but seem to have found more consistency since.

Following commendable draws with Gremio and Atletico Goianiense, the Coelho defeated Fluminense 1-0 thanks to Ademir's second-half winner and bounced back from a defeat to title-chasing Bragantino with a 2-0 home victory over Ceara last time out.

Fabricio hit a brace to fire Mancini's men to a crucial win, seeing them rise to 17th spot as a result.

Now sitting just three points adrift in the relegation zone and six points off the top half, they will be fully aware that they can quickly climb the table if this improved form can be continued, with Saturday presenting a good opportunity to topple a side lacking confidence.

Athletico Paranaense's Matheus Babi celebrates scoring their first goal on 13 June, 2021© Reuters

Athletico Paranaense enjoyed a strong start to the Brasileiro campaign, winning six of their opening eight games to sit in second spot.

Their form has taken a major dip since then though, with El Paranaense picking up just one victory from their last 10 games in the Brazilian top flight, as they defeated Internacional 2-1 on home turf in July.

That win was followed by a five-game losing run in the Campeonato Brasileiro, as they fell to defeats at the hands of Atletico Mineiro, Sao Paulo, Cuiaba, Corinthians and Palmeiras, scoring just twice in those games while conceding eight goals at the other end.

Antonio Oliveira's side did manage to break their league losing run last time out though, playing out a goalless draw at home to Sport Recife, seeing them keep hold of their spot in the top half as a result.

Since that draw, The Rubro-Negro took on Cascavel in the second leg of their Campeonato Paranaense semi-final tie, and after a 1-1 draw in the home leg, their woes were continued as they were handed a 2-1 defeat on the night to drop out of the competition.

Now with just a two-point lead over 15th-placed Sao Paulo, Oliveira will be desperate for his side to finally make a return to winning ways in league action on Saturday to avoid slipping any closer to the drop zone, but they face another tough task against an America Mineiro side with renewed confidence.

America Mineiro Brasileiro form:
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W

Athletico Paranaense Brasileiro form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D

Athletico Paranaense form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • L



Team News

Athletico Paranaense's Vitinho celebrates scoring their third goal on May 28, 2021© Reuters

Fabricio should certainly play a key role in the America Mineiro attacking line, after he hit both goals in their win over Ceara last time out.

He should again support forward Ribamar, who has netted two goals in the Brazilian top flight so far this season.

Chrigor, Ze Ricardo, Jori, Ale and Leo Passos all tested positive for COVID-19 prior to the Ceara clash, but with that coming in late August, they should be back with the squad after quarantining.

Athletico Paranaense goalkeeper Santos and attacker David Terans have been in action for Brazil and Uruguay respectively in the recent round of international games, and with both nations playing their final games on Friday, the duo are unlikely to feature in Saturday's trip to America Mineiro.

That should mean Bento continues to deputise between the sticks, while Renato Kayzer could lead the line.

Nikao will offer vital quality going forward, after he got on the scoresheet in the 2-1 defeat to Cascavel last time out, taking the winger's tally to six goals and seven assists in all competitions this season.

America Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Cavichioli; Patric, Potiguar, Eduardo, Paulo; Juninho, Kal; Ademir, Fabricio, Azevedo; Ribamar

Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Bento; Marcinho, Henrique, Heleno, Abner; Richard, Erick; Nkao, Christian, Rocha; Kayzer


SM words green background

We say: America Mineiro 1-1 Athletico Paranaense

While Athletico Paranaense have the quality to punish their hosts, Olivera's men have struggled to click recently and face a side in a much-improved run of form.

We see the newly-promoted side battling to earn another positive result, but ultimately expect the visitors to avoid defeat while failing to impress.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or draw in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Draw:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 43.19%. A draw had a probability of 29.5% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.9%) and 2-1 (7.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.2%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that America Mineiro would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: America Mineiro vs Athletico PR

America Mineiro
42.9%
Draw
42.9%
Athletico Paranaense
14.3%
7
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Palmeiras team huddle before the match on June 28, 2021
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Botafogo31197549262364
2PalmeirasPalmeiras31187653252861
3FortalezaFortaleza32179644321260
4FlamengoFlamengo31167850371355
5InternacionalInternacional311411642281453
6Sao Paulo31156104233951
7Bahia31137114237546
8Cruzeiro31128113633344
9Vasco da GamaVasco31127123643-743
10Atletico Mineiro30101194245-341
11Gremio32116153841-339
12Vitoria32115163746-938
13Fluminense32107152834-637
14CriciumaCriciuma31910123844-637
15Corinthians31811123540-535
16BragantinoBragantino32811133440-635
17Athletico ParanaenseAthletico PR3197153339-634
18JuventudeJuventude32810143851-1334
19Cuiaba32610162541-1628
20Atletico GoianienseAtletico GO3157192350-2722


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