Tajikistan are essentially playing with house money and have nothing to lose, which is not the case for the UAE who have unfinished business, falling at the penultimate hurdle over the past two Asian Cups. Based on recent form and how resilient Tajikistan have been against experienced sides at the Asian Cup, we believe they will keep a cool head when needed and pull off an upset. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tajikistan win with a probability of 43.14%. A win for United Arab Emirates had a probability of 29.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tajikistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest United Arab Emirates win was 0-1 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%).

Result
Tajikistan	Draw	United Arab Emirates
43.14% ( -0.19)	27.83% ( 0.01)	29.02% ( 0.18)

Both teams to score 46.53% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.98% (

0.02)

59.02% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.51% (

0.01)

79.48% (

-0.01)

Tajikistan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.88% (

-0.09)

27.12% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.5% (

-0.13)

62.5% (

0.12)

United Arab Emirates Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.83% (

0.15)

36.16% (

-0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.05% (

0.15)

72.95% (

-0.15)

Score Analysis

Tajikistan 43.13%

United Arab Emirates 29.02%

Draw 27.83%

Tajikistan	Draw	United Arab Emirates
1-0 @ 12.79% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 8.49% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 8.35% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 3.7% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3.63% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 1.88% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.21% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.19% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.9% Total : 43.13%	1-1 @ 13.01% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.81% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.32% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.69% Total : 27.83%	0-1 @ 9.97% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 6.62% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 5.07% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 2.24% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.72% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.93% Total : 29.02%