Bournemouth and Aston Villa square off in the Premier League on Saturday afternoon with just two points separating the clubs in the standings.
Villa sit in 16th position after picking up four points from their last two outings, while Bournemouth remain in the relegation zone despite their recent victory over Brighton & Hove Albion.
Match preview
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When Villa lost 6-1 to Manchester City earlier this month, there were more calls for Dean Smith to be removed from his position in the dugout, despite having only recently penned a new long-term contract.
With their Premier League status and a place in the EFL Cup final up for grabs, Smith would not have been shy in stating to his players that it was sink or swim time for them after an inconsistent five months since their return to the top flight.
However, the West Midlands outfit have responded with four important points in league matches against Brighton & Hove Albion and Watford respectively, as well as a dramatic triumph over Leicester City to earn the club an appearance at Wembley Stadium on March 1.
That has led to a significant change in dynamic at Villa Park, with supporters now fully behind Smith who has finally brought in striker Mbwana Samatta as a replacement for Wesley and Jonathan Kodjia.
Nevertheless, there is narrow margin for error down at the bottom of the table, and negativity will again creep in if Villa succumb to a struggling Bournemouth side.
Despite the relief of ending their winless streak against relegation rivals Brighton last week, going out of the FA Cup to a much-changed Arsenal side would have reminded Eddie Howe that there is plenty of work ahead if they wish to avoid dropping into the Championship.
While Howe may feel that being able to focus on the Premier League can benefit them in the long run, yet another defeat at the Vitality Stadium has taken away some of the momentum generated from the convincing success against Brighton.
Overcoming an in-form Villa would change a lot of things, including a switch in league position and the Cherries moving outside of the relegation zone.
However, this is a high stakes contest, and yet another top-flight setback would hand Villa a five-point advantage in the race to stay in this division.
Bournemouth Premier League form: DLLLLW
Bournemouth form (all competitions): LWLLWL
Aston Villa Premier League form: WLWLDW
Aston Villa form (all competitions): LDLDWW
Team News
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Despite Orjan Nyland's heroics in the EFL Cup in midweek, Pepe Reina is expected to return between the sticks after being ineligible for that game.
Having successfully come through his first outing for the club, Samatta should retain his place in attack, leaving Trezeguet to remain among the replacements.
The rest of the starting lineup should stay the same, with any new arrivals only being selected on the substitutes' bench.
As for Bournemouth, Philip Billing may miss out after suffering a back injury against Brighton last week.
While he netted against Arsenal on Monday night, Sam Surridge is likely to miss out to Dominic Solanke and Callum Wilson.
Bournemouth possible starting lineup:
Ramsdale; Smith, S.Cook, Ake, Rico; H.Wilson, Lerma, Gosling, Fraser; Solanke, C.Wilson
Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Reina; Konsa, Mings, Hause; Guilbert, Nakamba, Luiz, Targett; El Ghazi, Samatta, Grealish
We say: Bournemouth 1-2 Aston Villa
Despite possessing home advantage and having recently got the better of Brighton, we feel that Bournemouth are up against it in this match. Both clubs would probably accept a share of the spoils, but we are backing Villa to score late on to move clear of the drop zone.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a win with a probability of 48.14%. A win for had a probability of 29.38% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.96%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest win was 1-2 (7.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.89%).
