Atletico Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense square off on Thursday in an important game at the top end of the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A table.
The two sides currently sit level on points in eighth and seventh spots respectively, with the visitors leading on goal difference with a game in hand.
Match preview
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After a positive start to the season, collecting nine points from their opening four games, Atletico Mineiro have hit somewhat of a dip in form coming into Thursday's clash.
Following five consecutive wins in all competitions, three of which coming in the Brazilian top flight, Cuca's men were held to a somewhat disappointing draw by strugglers Chapecoense as a Ravanelli penalty in the 80th minute drew the newly-promoted side level after Tche Tche's early opener.
They then suffered consecutive defeats, firstly losing 2-1 away against Ceara as they were the victims of late drama.
The game looked set to end 1-1 after Gabriel's 72nd-minute equaliser for the Alvinegro, only for Ceara centre-back Gabriel Lacerda to hit the winner in the 96th minute to snatch all three points and send Cuca's side home empty-handed.
That was followed by a second straight defeat last time out, as Jean Mota put Santos ahead on the hour mark before Marcos Guilherme sealed the result with a goal in the dying minutes.
As a result of their poor run of results in recent weeks, Atletico Mineiro have slipped down to eighth spot in the table, but a win would see them leapfrog their opponents and potentially rise as high as second place, giving Cuca's men plenty of motivation to make a return to winning ways.
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Atletico Goianiense find themselves in an almost identical position, while they will look to put a gap between themselves and Thursday's hosts while keeping a game in hand.
They also enjoyed a strong start to the league season, but have since lost two of their last three games, firstly falling to a 2-1 defeat in a tough clash with high-flying Athletico Paranaense.
Eduardo Barroca's side bounced back immediately from that, as a Nathan Silva goal in the 81st minute fired them to a 1-0 win over Fluminense.
They were on the wrong end of a very similar game last time out, though, as league leaders Bragantino picked up a narrow 1-0 win thanks to Weverton's goal in the 82nd minute.
While that result against an unbeaten side is not overly disheartening, they will be desperate to make a return to winning ways to quickly climb back towards the top four, as they currently remain in a strong position on 10 points from their six games, while most other sides have played seven times.
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Team News
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Atletico Mineiro come into the game without a long list of players, as a coronavirus outbreak has ruled out Eduardo Sasha, Dylan Borrero, Nathan De Souza, Ignacio Fernandez, Marrony and Micael.
Meanwhile, important midfielder Allan Rodrigues de Souza will also miss out as he will serve a one-game suspension following his red card in the dying minutes of their recent defeat to Santos.
Their line will be led by experienced forward Hulk, who will look to add to his tally of two goals and an assist in Brasileiro action so far this season.
Atletico Goianiense are also missing several players through injuries, as Joao Paulo and Ronald both remain out of action.
Nathan Silva will continue to be a key man at the heart of the back line, having featured in every minute of league action so far this season while scoring one of their five league goals.
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Guga, Gabriel, Rever, Arana; Jair, Tche Tche, Calebe; Hyoran, Hulk, Keno
Atletico Goianiense possible starting lineup:
Fernando; Dudu, Silva, Eder, Carius; Freitas, Maranhao; Janderson, Arthur, Natanael; Roberto
We say: Atletico Mineiro 0-1 Atletico Goianiense
In a game between two fairly low-scoring sides, we see this being a particularly cagey affair, with one goal expected to decide it.
On this occasion, we see the visitors as the slightly more likely of the two teams to come away with the points, given their solidity at the back, while the Alvinegro may have slightly more weaknesses as a result of their depleted squad.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 58.21%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Atletico Goianiense had a probability of 17.81%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.71%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.25%), while for an Atletico Goianiense win it was 0-1 (6.68%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
