Benfica will look to pull off a major upset when they welcome five-time European champions Bayern Munich to the Estadio da Luz for the second leg of their Champions League quarter-final on Wednesday evening.
The tie is finely poised after Bayern could only manage a 1-0 victory in Munich last week, leaving Benfica in with a shout of reaching the semi-finals for the first time since 1990.
Benfica
© AFP
There were many who expected Benfica to be all but out of this tie by the time they welcomed Bayern back to Lisbon for the second leg.
However, Rui Vitoria's side proved to be a match for their hosts last week in Munich, and may even feel that they should be in a better position at the halfway stage of the tie.
Things looked ominous when they fell behind after less than two minutes, with their defence, which Bayern boss Pep Guardiola described as the best in Europe before the game, going to sleep to allow Arturo Vidal to sneak in and head his side in front.
Benfica fans would have been forgiven for fearing a rout after one of the tournament favourites had made such a quick start, but that proved to be the only goal of the game as Benfica frustrated a below-par Bayern.
The Portuguese outfit could have even levelled things up on the night had Jonas not been uncharacteristically wasteful in front of goal, but despite the lack of an away goal, Benfica are in a relatively healthy position heading back to home turf.
Indeed, the last three occasions that they have lost a European first leg away from home they have gone on to win on aggregate, while they have a 50% win rate in ties where they have lost the away first leg by a solitary goal to nil.
Only a win will do on Wednesday, but Vitoria's side have emerged victorious from 20 of their last 22 games in all competitions and 29 of their last 33 outings in front of their own fans.
They have kept clean sheets in 21 of those home matches, but against an attacking force as potent as Bayern Munich's, it may come down to their prowess at the other end of the field, which makes it all the more costly that Jonas picked up a yellow card in the first leg that rules him out of this match.
Benfica have, however, won 12 of their 19 home matches this season by at least two goals, although they have only done so once in their last nine Champions League games at the Estadio da Luz.
The Eagles are still in with a shout of the treble this season, leading their domestic league by two points following a come-from-behind victory over Academica at the weekend and booking their place in the semi-finals of the cup.
Should they progress into the last four of this competition then the omens are good for the club - they have reached the final on each of the last two occasions that they have made it past the quarters.
Recent form: WDLWWL
Recent form (all competitions): WWWWLW
Bayern Munich
© AFP
For a Bayern side widely considered to be the best bet to knock reigning European champions Barcelona off their perch this season, their performance in the first leg was disappointing.
Guardiola and co insisted that it was a good result against one of Europe's form teams, and many other clubs would be content with a 1-0 victory over the likes of Benfica, but there is no doubt that the German champions were short of their best.
The likes of Thomas Muller and Robert Lewandowski, who have been in sparkling form all season, barely featured at the Allianz Arena, and Guardiola will know that improvement is needed if they are to go all the way in this season's competition.
It is, of course, the last chance for Guardiola to win the tournament with Bayern due to his impending move to Manchester City, and having taken over with the club as European champions, it would be something of a black mark on his impeccable record if he wasn't able to lift the trophy.
That goes some way to showing just how high the standards are that both Guardiola and Bayern hold themselves to, and should Bayern complete the job that they started last week then they will be in the semi-finals of the Champions League for a fifth straight year.
They certainly go into the match in encouraging form, having won each of their last six games in all competitions and lost just one of their last 20.
A draw would do for Bayern on Wednesday, and you have to go back to the first week of December for the last time that they were beaten away from home, going 11 games without defeat on the road since then.
However, their away form in this competition is less encouraging. Bayern have only won two of their last eight Champions League away games, with four defeats in that time and two draws, including in the last round against Juventus when they let a two-goal slip in Turin.
That run also includes a defeat in Portugal, with Porto running out 3-1 winners at this stage of the competition last season, only to be hammered 6-1 in the return leg in Munich as Bayern once again reached the last four.
They rarely give up a leading position in European ties, going through on 41 of the 49 occasions in which they have won the first leg at home, including each of the last nine. However, when they have had just a 1-0 lead to defend, their record is two wins and two defeats.
As with Benfica, the treble is the ultimate goal for Bayern this season, and they extended their lead at the top of the Bundesliga table to seven points with a 3-1 victory over Stuttgart at the weekend.
Recent form: WWWDWW
Recent form (all competitions): WWWWWW
Team News
© AFP
The big news for Benfica is that they will be without top scorer Jonas, who has 18 goals in as many appearances for the club in 2016, due to suspension.
Pizzi, Luisao and Goncalo Guedes are all a booking away from bans themselves, while Julio Cesar (thigh) and Nuno Santos (knee) remain sidelined through injury.
Vitoria is also sweating over the fitness of Nicolas Gaitan, who is struggling with a thigh injury despite playing the full 90 minutes at the weekend.
Gaitan wore the armband in the absence of Luisao in the first leg, but the usual skipper was an unused sub at the weekend following five months out with a broken arm and could make his return for this game.
Bayern's problem area remains the defence, with Holger Badstuber (ankle) and Jerome Boateng (groin) ruled out through injury.
Mehdi Benatia (groin) remains a doubt too, while further forward there are concerns over the fitness of Kingsley Coman (thigh) and Arjen Robben (groin).
Guardiola could, then, name an unchanged side to the one that started the first leg, which would see Lewandowski lead the line once again having scored 44 goals in 49 games for club and country this season.
Benfica possible starting lineup:
Ederson; Almeida, Lindelof, Jardel, Eliseu; Pizzi, Fejsa, Renato, Gaitan; Mitroglou, Jimenez
Bayern possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Lahm, Kimmich, Alaba, Bernat; Costa, Muller, Vidal, Thiago, Ribery; Lewandowski
Head To Head
These two clubs have played each other in three previous European ties, and Benfica have so far been a lucky charm for Bayern. Not only have the German outfit won all of those three ties, but they have gone on to reach the final each year that these sides have met.
Bayern despatched of Benfica on their way to winning the European Cup in 1976 and the UEFA Cup 20 years later, as well as finishing as runners-up to Aston Villa in the 1982 European Cup.
Benfica have lost just two of their 19 home matches against German opposition, although Bayern did account for one of those defeats during that 1995-96 UEFA Cup campaign. Overall, Benfica have won 12, drawn 13 and lost 16 of their 41 meetings against German sides home and away.
Bayern, meanwhile, have won all nine of their previous two-legged European ties against Portuguese opposition, losing just two of their 25 meetings with Primeira Liga clubs - both at the hands of Porto.
We say: Benfica 1-2 Bayern
Bayern had an off day in the first leg, but that doesn't happen too often and they will fancy their chances of getting at least one away goal in Lisbon. Benfica's home record is impressive, but they are missing their main goal threat and could also be without another key player in Gaitan. They showed in the first leg that they are not just here to make up the numbers, but this could be a challenge too far for the hosts.
No Data Analysis info
