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Belgium national football team
European Championship | Quarter-Finals
Jul 2, 2021 at 8pm UK
Allianz Arena
Italy national football team

Belgium
1 - 2
Italy

Lukaku (45+2' pen.)
Tielemans (21')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Barella (31'), Insigne (44')
Verratti (20'), Berardi (90')

Preview: Belgium vs. Italy - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's European Championship clash between Belgium and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Two continental heavyweights go head-to-head on Friday night, as Belgium clash with Italy in the Euro 2020 quarter-finals.

The pair convene at Munich's Allianz Arena, with the Belgians currently ranked the world's number one side, having not lost this year, while the Azzurri celebrated a new national record of 31 games unbeaten in the previous round.


Match preview

Belgium's Thorgan Hazard celebrates scoring against Portugal at Euro 2020 on June 27, 2021© Reuters

Thorgan Hazard's stunning first-half strike ended Portugal's reign as European champions in Seville last Sunday, as a bruised but buoyant Belgium squad confirmed their place in the quarter-finals of a fourth successive major tournament.

Shortly before the interval, Hazard junior broke the deadlock with his fourth goal in seven international appearances this year, but coach Roberto Martinez lost both Kevin De Bruyne and Thorgan's brother Eden Hazard to injury during a hard-fought second period, as goalkeeper Thibault Courtois made a series of saves to seal progress.

Belgium have now won each of their last 14 matches throughout the qualifiers and these finals; equalling the record set by Germany and last-eight opponents Italy. That mark must fall in Bavaria, as both nations seek a 15th successive victory in the competition - after following a perfect streak in qualifying with four wins from four so far.

In all, the Red Devils have also scored in every one of their last 34 games, while winning 23 of their last 27. Such form, befitting the top-ranked nation in the world, saw them dominate Group B - with a 3-0 success against Russia being followed by comeback victory versus an emotional Denmark and then a regulation win over debutants Finland.

Amongst the scorers in that group-stage stroll was Golden Boot-contender Romelu Lukaku, who Italy midfielder Matteo Pessina this week described as "the best striker in the world", and the Inter forward's strike against Finland was a record-extending 63rd for his country. Lukaku leads the line for the most experienced squad at these Euros; a group which contains five players with 100 caps or more - 15 of whom played at Euro 2016, while 18 featured at the last World Cup.

They do, however, now meet something of a nemesis for them historically, as Belgium's record in 22 meetings with Italy includes only four wins and 14 defeats.

To take a step closer to emulating their nation's biggest football achievement to date - reaching the final of this tournament back in 1980, when they lost 2-1 to West Germany - manager Martinez may therefore seek to recall when he met Friday's opposite number, Roberto Mancini, in the 2013 FA Cup final. On that day, his Wigan Athletic upset the odds to claim their first-ever major trophy against Mancini's Manchester City.

Italy's Federico Chiesa celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on June 26, 2021© Reuters

After an eye-catching run of group phase performances, it was left to substitutes Federico Chiesa and Matteo Pessina to send Italy into the last eight, with their extra-time strikes at Wembley edging out a determined Austria side last week.

Juventus winger Chiesa - who joined his father Enrico in having scored for the Azzurri at a European finals - executed a clinical finish from Leonardo Spinazzola's cross, before fellow replacement Pessina pounced to fire in the second.

Only a late addition to Italy's squad following the withdrawal of injured Stefano Sensi, the Atalanta midfielder's strike was the 100th of this year's tournament and his fourth in as many games for the national side.

That late flurry not only saved the skins of Mancini's much-fancied team, but also took them onto nine goals from four games so far - already matching their previous highest total at any single finals; set at Euro 2000. They have been defensively sound too, as though Sasa Kalajdzic's goal ended Italy's run of 11 games without conceding, their last defeat came against Portugal - as long ago as September 2018.

Since then, something of a rebirth since ignominiously failing to make the last World Cup has seen their manager shuffle through a remarkable number of options, before settling on this relatively youthful selection aided by a few wise old heads.

In fact, star striker Ciro Immobile became only the third member of the 26-man squad to reach a half-century of caps earlier in the competition, and the Lazio sharpshooter is also La Nazionale's top active scorer, having found the net in five of his last six starts to take his international tally to a modest 15.

After a 12th win in a row last time out, this current Italy squad - who cruised through as winners of Group A - are facing growing expectation that they can lift the trophy for the first time since triumphing on home soil at the 1968 event. The Azzurri have been runners-up twice in the intervening years - in both 2000 and 2012 - but to even reach this year's decider, Mancini's men must first beat Belgium, then either Switzerland or Spain in the semi-finals.

Belgium European Championship form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Belgium form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Italy European Championship form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Italy form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W



Team News

Belgium's Kevin De Bruyne with Belgium coach Roberto Martinez after being substituted after sustaining an injury on June 27, 2021© Reuters

Belgium could be without two integral players, from the start at least, as both Kevin De Bruyne and captain Eden Hazard were forced to come off with injuries against Portugal.

Roberto Martinez confirmed that neither has sustained a serious injury as first feared - scans showed that Hazard has a muscular issue and De Bruyne an ankle sprain - but only the Manchester City man could be fit enough to begin Friday's quarter-final clash, so Yannick Carrasco or Jeremy Doku will start.

Every one of their 24 outfield players has seen action at some point in Belgium's first four matches, with only the back-up goalkeepers yet to take the field. One of those reserve stoppers, Simon Mignolet, was forced to withdraw from the squad due to a knee injury sustained in the warm-up last week, so Thomas Kaminski has now joined the camp as cover.

Timothy Castagne was also ruled out of action after sustaining facial fractures in the opening match, so the wing-backs are set to remain the same - with Thomas Meunier and Thorgan Hazard occupying the flanks; Axel Witsel and Youri Tielemans should continue in the centre.

The Italians, meanwhile, have selection issues of a different kind, as Roberto Mancini must decide whether to promote previous goalscorers Matteo Pessina and Manuel Locatelli to the starting XI. PSG midfield maestro Marco Verratti has confirmed his recovery from an ongoing knee problem with two fine performances, but Nicolo Barella's place is apparently in jeopardy.

At the back, veteran skipper Giorgio Chiellini trained separately from the rest of the squad last week because of a thigh injury, while full-back Alessandro Florenzi could only undertake individual gym work, but both have been back in training at the Azzurri's Coverciano headquarters and could start.

Napoli's Giovanni Di Lorenzo must, therefore, hope to keep his place ahead of Florenzi on the right side of the back four, with Francesco Acerbi potentially missing out on continuing his partnership with Leonardo Bonucci in the centre. However, Acerbi played for the starting team during Thursday's training session as a precaution and that decision remains on a knife-edge.

Mancini is expected to attack the shortage of pace at the heart of Belgium's defence by bringing in Federico Chiesa for Domenico Berardi on the right, with the exciting forward mirroring Leonardo Spinazzola's surging runs on the opposite wing.

Belgium possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Alderweireld, Vermaelen, Vertonghen; T. Hazard, Witsel, Tielemans, Meunier; De Bruyne, Lukaku, Doku

Italy possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bonucci, Chiellini, Spinazzola; Barella, Jorginho, Verratti; Chiesa, Immobile, Insigne


SM words green background

We say: Belgium 1-2 Italy

The pick of the quarter-finals, this clash is an incredibly difficult one to call, as moments of individual quality are likely to be all that separates the teams over the course of 90 minutes - and possibly extra time.

Italy may progress to the semi-finals, however, as Belgium are diminished by injuries sustained in the last 16 and the Azzurri have attacking assets that can decide any game with a flash of inspiration.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a draw or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Draw/Away:data



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Written by
Jonathan O'Shea

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 38.65%. A win for Belgium had a probability of 37.38% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.18%) and 0-2 (5.57%). The likeliest Belgium win was 2-1 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Italy in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Belgium vs Italy

Belgium
48.7%
Italy
51.3%
1586
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Italy's Domenico Berardi celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on March 25, 2021
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Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Germany Germany32107
Q Switzerland Switzerland31205
3 Hungary Hungary31023
4 Scotland flag Scotland30121

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Spain Spain33009
Q Italy Italy31114
3 Croatia Croatia30212
4 Albania national flag Albania30121

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
Q England flag England31205
Q Denmark Denmark30303
Q Slovenia Slovenia30303
4 Serbia Serbia30212

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Austria Austria32016
Q France France31205
Q Netherlands Netherlands31114
4 Poland Poland30121

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Romania Romania31114
Q Belgium Belgium31114
Q Slovakia Slovakia31114
4 Ukraine Ukraine31114

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Portugal Portugal32016
Q Turkey Turkey32016
Q Georgia Georgia31114
4 Czech Republic Czech Republic30121


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