An enticing clash in West London awaits on Saturday as Brentford host Reading, with both sides currently occupying spots in the Championship playoffs.
The Bees sit in sixth place, only a point behind the Royals, who are fifth, but Veljko Paunovic's side have a worse goal difference.
Match preview
© Reuters
Brentford drew 1-1 with another promotion-chasing side, Watford, on Tuesday, with Ivan Toney netting his 16th goal of the season from the penalty spot to cancel out Troy Deeney's earlier spot kick, which followed a red card for Ethan Pinnock.
Thomas Frank, who himself was booked at the end of the game as things got heated on the sidelines, claimed that his team "absolutely destroyed" Watford and should have comfortably won the game.
Nonetheless, the draw extended the Bees' unbeaten run to 12 games, the longest in the Championship this season.
Brentford have only lost once at home so far this campaign and that came back at the start of October against Preston North End, but they have drawn five of their last six games at the Brentford Community Stadium.
© Reuters
Reading are back in the capital after winning 1-0 away at Queens Park Rangers last Saturday, which preceded a 2-1 defeat to league leaders Norwich City at the Madejski Stadium in midweek. Teenage sensation Michael Olise scored in both matches as his stock continues to rise.
It was a fourth defeat in their last six home games, so Veljko Paunovic's side may be thankful to be away from Berkshire again this weekend.
They have only lost twice on the road this season – only Bournemouth (one) have lost fewer – and have scored in each of their nine away matches apart from one, a 0-0 draw at Middlesbrough in October.
Only Bournemouth and Blackburn Rovers have scored more goals in total across the league, but the Royals have conceded the most times out of any club in the top six – 23, which is five more than any of their promotion rivals.
Reading won on just two occasions in their final 14 trips to Griffin Park, so will be hoping that the Brentford Community Stadium brings them more luck.
Brentford Championship form: WWDDWD
Reading Championship form: WDWLWL
Team News
© Reuters
Ethan Pinnock's red card against Watford rules him out of Saturday's game, while fellow centre-back Pontus Jansson remains unavailable due to an ankle injury.
It means that Thomas Frank will likely start with a partnership of Mads Bech Sorensen and Charlie Goode in the centre of defence.
Marcus Forss returned from illness to come off the bench in midweek, and is in contention to start at the Brentford Community Stadium.
Reading's hefty injury list is limiting Veljko Paunovic's options, with John Swift the only absentee who is close to returning.
Sam Baldock may come back into the side to start upfront after Alfa Semedo's stint as a false nine in midweek did not quite work.
Tomas Esteves, a natural right-back, came on in a more advanced role against Norwich, so could be another option if Paunovic decides to switch around his attacking set-up.
Brentford possible starting lineup:
Raya; Dalsgaard, Goode, Sorensen, Henry; Dasilva, Jensen, Janelt; Mbuemo, Toney, Forss
Reading possible starting lineup:
Rafael; Holmes, Morrison, Moore, Gibson; Rinomhota, Laurent; Olise, Semedo, Ejaria; Baldock
We say: Brentford 2-2 Reading
Despite their injuries, Reading have coped admirably in their last two games and will battle for at least a point against Brentford. The Bees are draw specialists and both teams are strong going forward, so an exciting encounter that ends all square seems the most likely outcome in this one.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brentford win with a probability of 53.36%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Reading had a probability of 21.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brentford win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.61%) and 2-1 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for a Reading win it was 0-1 (7.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brentford would win this match.
