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Bundesliga | Gameweek 32
May 4, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
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Dortmund
5 - 1
Augsburg

Moukoko (4', 29'), Malen (20'), Reus (34'), Nmecha (64')
FT(HT: 4-1)
Vargas (32')
Bauer (10')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Augsburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 1-0 PSG
Wednesday, May 1 at 8pm in Champions League

Augsburg

All competitions
Last Game: Augsburg 0-3 Werder Bremen
Saturday, April 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Augsburg

 Now that Dortmund are guaranteed a Champions League spot for next season, Augsburg will hope that the hosts will take their foot off the gas on the domestic front as they endeavour to boost their own European hopes heading down the home straight. However, even if Terzic does decide to rotate his side, we believe that the BVB boss will still field a strong enough team to claim all three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 55.75%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 24.41% and a draw had a probability of 19.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.82%) and 2-0 (6.03%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 1-2 (5.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.81%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawAugsburg
55.75% (-1.292 -1.29) 19.84% (0.07 0.07) 24.41% (1.219 1.22)
Both teams to score 69.46% (1.325 1.33)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
72.67% (1.06 1.06)27.33% (-1.064 -1.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
52.09% (1.324 1.32)47.91% (-1.327 -1.33)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.88% (0.010999999999996 0.01)10.12% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.69% (0.031999999999996 0.03)33.31% (-0.035000000000004 -0.04)
Augsburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.29% (1.463 1.46)22.71% (-1.468 -1.47)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.63% (2.126 2.13)56.37% (-2.128 -2.13)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 55.75%
    Augsburg 24.41%
    Draw 19.84%
Borussia DortmundDrawAugsburg
2-1 @ 8.94% (-0.177 -0.18)
3-1 @ 6.82% (-0.131 -0.13)
2-0 @ 6.03% (-0.391 -0.39)
1-0 @ 5.27% (-0.345 -0.35)
3-2 @ 5.06% (0.121 0.12)
3-0 @ 4.6% (-0.295 -0.3)
4-1 @ 3.91% (-0.073 -0.07)
4-2 @ 2.9% (0.071 0.07)
4-0 @ 2.64% (-0.167 -0.17)
5-1 @ 1.79% (-0.032 -0.03)
4-3 @ 1.43% (0.094 0.09)
5-2 @ 1.33% (0.034 0.03)
5-0 @ 1.21% (-0.076 -0.08)
Other @ 3.84%
Total : 55.75%
1-1 @ 7.81% (-0.16 -0.16)
2-2 @ 6.63% (0.154 0.15)
3-3 @ 2.5% (0.162 0.16)
0-0 @ 2.3% (-0.152 -0.15)
Other @ 0.61%
Total : 19.84%
1-2 @ 5.79% (0.13 0.13)
0-1 @ 3.41% (-0.072 -0.07)
2-3 @ 3.27% (0.211 0.21)
1-3 @ 2.86% (0.183 0.18)
0-2 @ 2.53% (0.056 0.06)
0-3 @ 1.25% (0.079 0.08)
2-4 @ 1.21% (0.126 0.13)
1-4 @ 1.06% (0.109 0.11)
3-4 @ 0.93% (0.097 0.1)
Other @ 2.12%
Total : 24.41%

How you voted: Dortmund vs Augsburg

Borussia Dortmund
83.6%
Draw
9.6%
Augsburg
6.8%
73
Head to Head
Dec 16, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 15
Augsburg
1-1
Dortmund
Demirovic (23')
Gouweleeuw (79'), Gumny (90+4')
Malen (35')
Haller (90+1')
> Preview
May 21, 2023 4.30pm
Gameweek 33
Augsburg
0-3
Dortmund

Beljo (42'), Gouweleeuw (69'), Demirovic (73')
Uduokhai (38')
Haller (58', 84'), Brandt (90+3')
Can (47'), Adeyemi (69'), Wolf (73')
> Preview
Jan 22, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 16
Dortmund
4-3
Augsburg
Bellingham (29'), Schlotterbeck (42'), Bynoe-Gittens (75'), Reyna (78')
Maier (40'), Demirovic (45+1'), Colina (76')
> Preview
Feb 27, 2022 4.30pm
Gameweek 24
Augsburg
1-1
Dortmund
Sarenren Bazee (78')
Vargas (19'), Dorsch (47')
Hazard (35')
Bellingham (87')
> Preview
Oct 2, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 7
Dortmund
2-1
Augsburg
Guerreiro (10' pen.), Brandt (51')
Reus (44')
Zeqiri (35')
Gruezo (13'), Oxford (15'), Zeqiri (53')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern14103142123033
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1485132201229
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1483334201427
4RB Leipzig148332315827
5Freiburg147342019124
6Stuttgart146532924523
7Mainz 05Mainz146442519622
8Borussia DortmundDortmund146442521422
9Werder Bremen146442224-222
10Wolfsburg146353125621
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach146352319421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin144551315-217
13Augsburg144461627-1116
14Hoffenheim143561926-714
15St Pauli143291119-811
16Heidenheim1431101831-1310
17Holstein Kiel1412111437-235
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1403111135-243
> Bundesliga Full Table


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