Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 33

May 21, 2023 at 4.30pm UK

WWK Arena

Augsburg
0 - 3
Dortmund

Beljo (42'), Gouweleeuw (69'), Demirovic (73')
Uduokhai (38')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Haller (58', 84'), Brandt (90+3')
Can (47'), Adeyemi (69'), Wolf (73')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Augsburg

All competitions

Last Game: VfL Bochum 3-2 Augsburg
Saturday, May 13 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Last Game: Dortmund 5-2 Borussia M'bach
Saturday, May 13 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Augsburg 1-3 Borussia Dortmund

Both teams' outlook on this fixture will be hugely affected by results elsewhere across Friday and Saturday, with Augsburg set to discover whether they may require any more points in order to survive. Dortmund, meanwhile, will know whether they can return to the top of the table by beating Augsburg after watching Bayern take on Leipzig less than 24 hours prior, but either way we expect them to have too much quality for their hampered opponents. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 60.07%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 19.46%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.76%) and 0-1 (8.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.31%), while for an Augsburg win it was 2-1 (5.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Augsburg	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
19.46% ( -0.16)	20.47% ( 0.02)	60.07% ( 0.14)

Both teams to score 59.4% (

-0.38)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.86% (

-0.37)

37.13% (

0.37)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.67% (

-0.4)

59.33% (

0.41)

Augsburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.54% (

-0.38)

32.46% (

0.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.01% (

-0.43)

68.99% (

0.43)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.95% (

-0.07)

12.05% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.45% (

-0.16)

37.55% (

0.17)

Score Analysis

Augsburg 19.46%

Borussia Dortmund 60.07%

Draw 20.47%

Augsburg	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 5.24% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 4.4% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 2.48% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 1.97% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.37% Total : 19.46%	1-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.54% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 3.91% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.24% Total : 20.47%	1-2 @ 9.85% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 8.76% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 8.28% ( 0.13) 1-3 @ 6.95% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 6.18% ( 0.06) 2-3 @ 3.91% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 3.68% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 3.27% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 2.07% ( -0.03) 1-5 @ 1.56% ( -0.01) 0-5 @ 1.38% ( 0) Other @ 4.18% Total : 60.07%