Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 4

Sep 16, 2023 at 2.30pm UK

Schwarzwald-Stadion

Freiburg
2 - 4
Dortmund

Holer (45+2'), Hofler (45+6')
Lienhart (87'), Eggestein (89')
Hofler (82')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Hummels (11', 88'), Malen (60'), Reus (90+2')
Bensebaini (45+4'), Wolf (68'), Can (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Freiburg

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Stuttgart 5-0 Freiburg
Saturday, September 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Dortmund 2-2 Heidenheim
Friday, September 1 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Freiburg 2-2 Borussia Dortmund

We expect Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund to dish up a high-scoring thriller as both sides bid to return to winning ways, with a draw looking like the most probable outcome at the Europa-Park Stadion. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 58.81%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 21.14% and a draw had a probability of 20%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.56%) and 1-3 (7.05%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 2-1 (5.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Freiburg	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
21.14% ( 0.35)	20.05% ( 0.4)	58.81% ( -0.74)

Both teams to score 63.92% (

-0.96)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

67.47% (

-1.47)

32.53% (

1.48)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

45.82% (

-1.72)

54.18% (

1.73)

Freiburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.8% (

-0.56)

28.2% (

0.56)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.1% (

-0.72)

63.9% (

0.72)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.03% (

-0.63)

10.97% (

0.64)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

64.8% (

-1.43)

35.2% (

1.43)

Score Analysis

Freiburg 21.14%

Borussia Dortmund 58.81%

Draw 20.05%

Freiburg	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 5.48% ( 0.12) 1-0 @ 3.91% ( 0.24) 3-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 2.48% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 2.31% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.37% Total : 21.14%	1-1 @ 8.65% ( 0.32) 2-2 @ 6.05% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 3.09% ( 0.24) 3-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.37% Total : 20.05%	1-2 @ 9.56% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 7.56% ( 0.2) 1-3 @ 7.05% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 6.84% ( 0.36) 0-3 @ 5.57% 2-3 @ 4.46% ( -0.14) 1-4 @ 3.89% ( -0.17) 0-4 @ 3.08% ( -0.08) 2-4 @ 2.46% ( -0.15) 1-5 @ 1.72% ( -0.12) 0-5 @ 1.36% ( -0.08) 2-5 @ 1.09% ( -0.1) 3-4 @ 1.04% ( -0.08) Other @ 3.14% Total : 58.81%