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Bundesliga | Gameweek 4
Sep 16, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
Schwarzwald-Stadion
Dortmund logo

Freiburg
2 - 4
Dortmund

Holer (45+2'), Hofler (45+6')
Lienhart (87'), Eggestein (89')
Hofler (82')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Hummels (11', 88'), Malen (60'), Reus (90+2')
Bensebaini (45+4'), Wolf (68'), Can (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Freiburg

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Stuttgart 5-0 Freiburg
Saturday, September 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 2-2 Heidenheim
Friday, September 1 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Freiburg 2-2 Borussia Dortmund

 We expect Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund to dish up a high-scoring thriller as both sides bid to return to winning ways, with a draw looking like the most probable outcome at the Europa-Park Stadion. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 58.81%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 21.14% and a draw had a probability of 20%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.56%) and 1-3 (7.05%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 2-1 (5.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
FreiburgDrawBorussia Dortmund
21.14% (0.35 0.35) 20.05% (0.4 0.4) 58.81% (-0.744 -0.74)
Both teams to score 63.92% (-0.959 -0.96)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.47% (-1.468 -1.47)32.53% (1.476 1.48)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
45.82% (-1.722 -1.72)54.18% (1.73 1.73)
Freiburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.8% (-0.55799999999999 -0.56)28.2% (0.565 0.56)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.1% (-0.715 -0.72)63.9% (0.72300000000001 0.72)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.03% (-0.63200000000001 -0.63)10.97% (0.639 0.64)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
64.8% (-1.425 -1.43)35.2% (1.432 1.43)
Score Analysis
    Freiburg 21.14%
    Borussia Dortmund 58.81%
    Draw 20.05%
FreiburgDrawBorussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 5.48% (0.118 0.12)
1-0 @ 3.91% (0.244 0.24)
3-2 @ 2.55% (-0.054 -0.05)
2-0 @ 2.48% (0.117 0.12)
3-1 @ 2.31% (0.013 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.05% (0.033 0.03)
Other @ 3.37%
Total : 21.14%
1-1 @ 8.65% (0.32 0.32)
2-2 @ 6.05% (-0.031000000000001 -0.03)
0-0 @ 3.09% (0.239 0.24)
3-3 @ 1.88% (-0.092 -0.09)
Other @ 0.37%
Total : 20.05%
1-2 @ 9.56% (0.103 0.1)
0-2 @ 7.56% (0.199 0.2)
1-3 @ 7.05% (-0.113 -0.11)
0-1 @ 6.84% (0.356 0.36)
0-3 @ 5.57%
2-3 @ 4.46% (-0.144 -0.14)
1-4 @ 3.89% (-0.17 -0.17)
0-4 @ 3.08% (-0.084 -0.08)
2-4 @ 2.46% (-0.149 -0.15)
1-5 @ 1.72% (-0.124 -0.12)
0-5 @ 1.36% (-0.075 -0.08)
2-5 @ 1.09% (-0.098 -0.1)
3-4 @ 1.04% (-0.08 -0.08)
Other @ 3.14%
Total : 58.81%

How you voted: Freiburg vs Dortmund

Freiburg
12.1%
Draw
39.4%
Borussia Dortmund
48.5%
33
Head to Head
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5-1
Freiburg
Schlotterbeck (26'), Adeyemi (48'), Haller (51'), Brandt (69'), Reyna (82')
Holer (45')
> Preview
Aug 12, 2022 7.30pm
Gameweek 2
Freiburg
1-3
Dortmund
Gregoritsch (35')
Kyereh (86')
Bynoe-Gittens (77'), Moukoko (84'), Wolf (88')
Meunier (33'), Bellingham (60'), Schlotterbeck (67')
> Preview
Jan 14, 2022 7.30pm
Gameweek 19
Dortmund
5-1
Freiburg
Meunier (14', 29'), Braut Haaland (45+1', 75'), Dahoud (86')
Brandt (76'), Braut Haaland (88')
Demirovic (61')
> Preview
Aug 21, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 2
Freiburg
2-1
Dortmund
Grifo (6'), Sallai (53')
Demirovic (86')
Keitel (59' og.)
Malen (19'), Dahoud (34'), Akanji (61'), Guerreiro (76')
> Preview
Feb 6, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 20
Freiburg
2-1
Dortmund
Woo-yeong (49'), Schmid (52')
Haberer (90+4')
Moukoko (76')
Bellingham (78'), Akanji (90+2')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern14103142123033
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1485132201229
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1483334201427
4RB Leipzig148332315827
5Freiburg147342019124
6Stuttgart146532924523
7Mainz 05Mainz146442519622
8Borussia DortmundDortmund146442521422
9Werder Bremen146442224-222
10Wolfsburg146353125621
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach146352319421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin144551315-217
13Augsburg144461627-1116
14Hoffenheim143561926-714
15St Pauli143291119-811
16Heidenheim1431101831-1310
17Holstein Kiel1412111437-235
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1403111135-243
> Bundesliga Full Table


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