Dortmund5 - 1Freiburg
We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Freiburg
This is a very difficult match to call, as Freiburg deserve a lot of respect for their performances and indeed results this season. Dortmund simply have to win in order to stay in touch with Bayern, though, and we are backing the home side to edge a close contest on Friday night. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 65.8%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 15.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.81%) and 1-0 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.72%), while for a Freiburg win it was 1-2 (4.32%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Freiburg |
| 65.8% | 18.88% | 15.32% |
| Both teams to score 56.27% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.89% | 37.11% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.69% | 59.31% |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.47% | 10.53% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 65.77% | 34.23% |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.89% | 37.11% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 26.11% | 73.89% |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Freiburg |
| 2-0 @ 9.9% 2-1 @ 9.81% 1-0 @ 8.8% 3-0 @ 7.43% 3-1 @ 7.37% 4-0 @ 4.18% 4-1 @ 4.15% 3-2 @ 3.65% 4-2 @ 2.06% 5-0 @ 1.88% 5-1 @ 1.87% 5-2 @ 0.93% Other @ 3.79% Total : 65.8% | 1-1 @ 8.72% 2-2 @ 4.87% 0-0 @ 3.91% 3-3 @ 1.21% Other @ 0.18% Total : 18.88% | 1-2 @ 4.32% 0-1 @ 3.87% 0-2 @ 1.92% 2-3 @ 1.61% 1-3 @ 1.43% Other @ 2.17% Total : 15.32% |
