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Bundesliga | Gameweek 34
May 27, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
Signal Iduna Park
Mainz logo

Dortmund
2 - 2
Mainz

Guerreiro (69'), Sule (90+6')
Guerreiro (40')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Hanche-Olsen (15'), Onisiwo (24')
Fernandes (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Augsburg 0-3 Dortmund
Sunday, May 21 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Mainz 1-4 Stuttgart
Sunday, May 21 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Mainz 05

Mainz came out on top against Bayern at the end of last month and they will hope to end their campaign on a high by claiming maximum points on Saturday, spoiling Dortmund's title party in the process. However, we cannot see this rampant BVB side being stopped in their tracks, and while there may be some nervy moments during the contest, Terzic's men should do enough to clinch the club's ninth Bundesliga title. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 65.82%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 16.01%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.65%) and 3-1 (7.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (4.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawMainz 05
65.82% (-0.078999999999994 -0.08) 18.17% (0.035 0.04) 16.01% (0.046000000000001 0.05)
Both teams to score 60.81% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.9% (-0.067999999999998 -0.07)32.1% (0.070999999999998 0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
46.32% (-0.080000000000005 -0.08)53.68% (0.082999999999998 0.08)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.86% (-0.034000000000006 -0.03)9.14% (0.036999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.99% (-0.087999999999994 -0.09)31.01% (0.091000000000001 0.09)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.93% (0.010999999999996 0.01)33.07% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.33% (0.012 0.01)69.67% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 65.82%
    Mainz 05 16.01%
    Draw 18.17%
Borussia DortmundDrawMainz 05
2-1 @ 9.57% (0.0059999999999985 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.65% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-1 @ 7.63% (-0.008 -0.01)
1-0 @ 7.23% (0.016 0.02)
3-0 @ 6.9% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
4-1 @ 4.57% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-2 @ 4.22% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 4.13% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-2 @ 2.53% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
5-1 @ 2.19% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.98% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
5-2 @ 1.21% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-3 @ 0.93% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 4.09%
Total : 65.82%
1-1 @ 8% (0.019000000000001 0.02)
2-2 @ 5.3% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-0 @ 3.02% (0.012 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.56% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 18.17%
1-2 @ 4.43% (0.012 0.01)
0-1 @ 3.34% (0.013 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.95% (0.002 0)
0-2 @ 1.85% (0.008 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.63% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.8%
Total : 16.01%

How you voted: Dortmund vs Mainz

Borussia Dortmund
81.2%
Draw
10.1%
Mainz 05
8.7%
69
Head to Head
Jan 25, 2023 5.30pm
gameweek 17
Mainz
1-2
Dortmund
Jae-sung (2')
Jae-sung (34'), Svensson (67'), Fernandes (76')
Ryerson (4'), Reyna (90+3')
Mar 16, 2022 5.30pm
gameweek 25
Mainz
0-1
Dortmund

Bell (43'), Stach (49'), Lucoqui (90+2')
Witsel (87')
Wolf (43'), Dahoud (44'), Pongracic (45+3'), Witsel (90+3')
Oct 16, 2021 2.30pm
gameweek 8
Dortmund
3-1
Mainz
Reus (3'), Braut Haaland (54' pen., 90+4')
Schulz (13'), Akanji (35')
Burkardt (87')
Bell (50'), Svensson (54'), Ingvartsen (64'), Tauer (71'), Niakhate (89')
May 16, 2021 5pm
gameweek 33
Mainz
1-3
Dortmund
Quaison (90+1' pen.)
Guerreiro (23'), Reus (42'), Brandt (80')
Jan 16, 2021 2.30pm
gameweek 16
Dortmund
1-1
Mainz
Meunier (73')
Can (68')
Oztunali (57')
Mwene (40'), Hack (47')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern15113147133436
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1595137211632
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1583435231227
4RB Leipzig158342420427
5Mainz 05Mainz157442820825
6Borussia DortmundDortmund157442822625
7Werder Bremen157442625125
8Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach157352520524
9Freiburg157352124-324
10Stuttgart156542925423
11Wolfsburg156363228421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin154561419-517
13Augsburg154471732-1516
14St Pauli154291219-714
15Hoffenheim153572028-814
16Heidenheim1531111833-1510
17Holstein Kiel1522111938-198
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1513111335-226


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