Bundesliga | Gameweek 23
Feb 22, 2025 at 2.30pm UK
Mewa Arena
Mainz2 - 0St Pauli
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Heidenheim 0-2 Mainz
Sunday, February 16 at 6.30pm in Bundesliga
Sunday, February 16 at 6.30pm in Bundesliga
Goals
for
for
35
Last Game: St Pauli 0-1 Freiburg
Saturday, February 15 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Saturday, February 15 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Goals
for
for
18
We said: Mainz 05 1-0 St Pauli
Given both sides' defensive records, Saturday's encounter could be low-scoring, as the side with the second-lowest goals conceded as hosts (10) seek a sixth league triumph at Mewa Arena against an opponent with the third-best defensive record away from home (13 conceded). Nevertheless, the 05ers are backed to edge the encounter and inflict a third straight league defeat on this weekend's opponents and eighth on their travels Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 44.18%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 29.51% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 0-1 (8.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mainz 05 | Draw | St Pauli |
44.18% ( -0.01) | 26.31% ( -0.03) | 29.51% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 51.21% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.85% ( 0.15) | 53.15% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.28% ( 0.13) | 74.72% ( -0.13) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.07% ( 0.06) | 23.93% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 41.85% ( 0.08) | 58.15% ( -0.08) |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.32% ( 0.11) | 32.68% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 30.77% ( 0.13) | 69.24% ( -0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
Mainz 05 44.18%
St Pauli 29.51%
Draw 26.31%
| Mainz 05 | Draw | St Pauli |
| 1-0 @ 11.18% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 8.94% ( 0)2-0 @ 8% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 4.26% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.81% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.38% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.52% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.36% ( 0)Other @ 2.71% Total : 44.18% | 1-1 @ 12.5% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.82% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 5% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.98% Total : 26.31% | 0-1 @ 8.75% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 6.99% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.89% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.61% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.82% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.58% Total : 29.51% |
How you voted: Mainz vs St Pauli
Mainz 05
85.2%Draw
14.8%St Pauli
0.0%27
Head to Head
Form Guide
